Premier League · Matchday 8 · Sat 24 Oct · 16:00 (Italian time)
Arsenal vs Everton: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Arsenal, second on 18 points, host Everton on Saturday at 16:00 (Italian time) after a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest. Everton are eighth on 10 points and were unbeaten, with two wins and four draws, until a 2-0 home defeat to Chelsea.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeArsenal | AwayEverton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd18 points | 8th10 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 6–0–1 | 2–4–1 |
| Goals for–against | 11–51.6–0.7 per match | 8–71.1–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 3 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Points away | 9in 4 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
The analysis
Arsenal: four clean sheets in seven games
Six wins and a defeat, 11 goals scored and 5 conceded. Arsenal have kept four clean sheets and have taken 9 points from three home games and 9 from four away. Both teams have scored in only two of their games. Last time out they won 1-0 at Nottingham.
Everton: unbeaten until last time out
Two wins, four draws and one defeat, the latest, 2-0 at home to Chelsea: 8 goals scored and 7 conceded. Everton have kept three clean sheets and only two games have had at least three goals. They have taken 7 points from four home games and have drawn all three away games.
What to expect
The model gives Arsenal 59% and Everton 16%, with 1.6 expected goals to 0.7. The most likely score is 1-0 (16%), then 2-0 (13%) and 1-1 (11%). At 2.3 expected goals in total it is the lowest-scoring game of the Premier League round: Over 2.5 is at 41%, both teams to score at 41%, an Arsenal clean sheet at 49%.
Our prediction
Arsenal vs Everton · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
79% estimated probability
Only four of Arsenal’s seven games and two of Everton’s have had at least three goals; the model expects 2.3 in total.
1
Arsenal win
59% estimated probability
Arsenal have won six of seven, all three at home. Everton are unbeaten away from home, but they have drawn all three away games.
Arsenal win to nil
Arsenal win without conceding
39% estimated probability
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in four of seven games and both teams have scored in only two of their matches. To an Arsenal win we add Everton failing to score; Everton have scored 8 goals in seven games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.