Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 15:00 CEST
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
A meeting of two teams near the bottom. Bournemouth are eighteenth on 3 points and still without a win; Sunderland, seventeenth on 4, have lost their last three. Both come off a defeat: 5-1 at Stamford Bridge for Bournemouth, 2-0 at home to Brighton for Sunderland.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBournemouth | AwaySunderland |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th3 points | 17th4 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 0–3–3 | 1–1–4 |
| Goals for–against | 7–131.2–2.2 per match | 6–121.0–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 2in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Points away | 1in 3 matches | 1in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Bournemouth: no clean sheets yet
Three draws and three defeats, 7 goals scored and 13 conceded: with Chelsea and Newcastle, the leakiest defence in the Premier League. Bournemouth have never kept a clean sheet and both teams have scored in five of their six games. At home they have taken 2 points from three games.
Sunderland: three defeats in a row
One win, one draw and four defeats, 6 goals scored and 12 conceded. Sunderland have lost their last three games and taken one point from three away. Only two of their games have produced at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Bournemouth 47% and Sunderland 29%, with 1.7 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely score is 1-1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%). The two defences have conceded 25 goals in twelve games and Bournemouth have never kept a clean sheet: Over 2.5 is at 58%, both teams to score at 60%.
Our prediction
Bournemouth vs Sunderland · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 0.5 first half
At least one goal in the first half
74% estimated probability
The two defences have conceded 25 goals in twelve games and the model expects 3 goals in total. One before half-time is the most solid reading.
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
58% estimated probability
Bournemouth concede more than two goals a game and four of their six games have gone over 2.5.
1 & Over 2.5
Bournemouth win and at least 3 goals in total
31% estimated probability
Bournemouth have not won yet, but the model makes them favourites against a Sunderland side that has lost three in a row. If the first win comes, with these defences it will probably come with at least three goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.