Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sat 17 Oct · 13:30 CEST
Everton vs Chelsea: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
The Saturday lunchtime game opens matchday 7 of the Premier League. Everton are fifth on 10 points and still unbeaten, but they have drawn four of six; Chelsea have the same points, come off a 5-1 win over Bournemouth and their games are full of goals.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeEverton | AwayChelsea |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th10 points | 6th10 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–4–0 | 3–1–2 |
| Goals for–against | 8–51.3–0.8 per match | 15–132.5–2.2 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 6 | 6 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 6 | 0 of 6 |
The analysis
Everton: four draws and no defeats
Two wins and four draws, 8 goals scored and 5 conceded: together with Arsenal, Brighton, Leeds and Manchester City, the meanest defence in the league. Everton have taken 7 points from three home games and drawn all three away, most recently 2-2 at Hull. They have kept three clean sheets and only two of their games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Chelsea: six games, always at least three goals
All six Chelsea games have produced at least three goals: 15 scored, the third-best attack in the league, and 13 conceded, with no clean sheets. They have taken 7 points at home and 3 from three away games. Last time out they thrashed Bournemouth 5-1.
What to expect
The model sees no clear favourite: Everton 41%, Chelsea 36%, with 1.7 expected goals to 1.5. The most likely score is 1-1 (10%), then 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). The two teams have opposite numbers, but Chelsea have never kept a clean sheet and score two and a half goals a game: both teams to score at 63%, Over 2.5 at 62%.
Our prediction
Everton vs Chelsea · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
83% estimated probability
Chelsea have never kept a clean sheet and all their games have had at least three goals. We only need two.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
63% estimated probability
Chelsea have conceded at least once in every game, 13 in total, and score two and a half goals a game. Everton have taken 7 points out of 9 at home.
Over 3.5
At least 4 goals in total
39% estimated probability
Chelsea’s games have produced 28 goals in six rounds, almost five per game. If Everton cannot impose their tempo, four goals are possible.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.