Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 15:00 CEST
Leeds vs Manchester United: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Manchester United, thirteenth on 6 points with one win in six, visit Elland Road. Leeds are seventh on 9, have one of the best defences in the league, 5 goals conceded, and come off a narrow defeat at Arsenal (1-2).
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLeeds | AwayManchester United |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th9 points | 13th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–1 | 1–3–2 |
| Goals for–against | 8–51.3–0.8 per match | 9–91.5–1.5 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 2in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 6 | 0 of 6 |
The analysis
Leeds: one of the best defences
Two wins, three draws and a defeat, 8 goals scored and 5 conceded, the league’s lowest together with Arsenal, Brighton, Everton and Manchester City. Leeds are unbeaten at home: one win and two draws. Only two of their games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Manchester United: no clean sheets yet
One win, three draws and two defeats, 9 goals scored and 9 conceded. United have never kept a clean sheet and have scored in four of six games. Away from home they have taken 2 points from three games and come off two draws in a row, the latest 1-1 with Tottenham.
What to expect
The model gives Leeds 45% and United 29%, with 1.5 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely score is 1-1 (12%), then 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%). Both teams have scored in four of each side’s six games, but few have produced three goals or more: both teams to score at 53%, Over 2.5 at 49%.
Our prediction
Leeds vs Manchester United · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Leeds win or draw
71% estimated probability
Leeds are unbeaten at home and have conceded 5 goals all season. United have taken 2 points from three away games.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
53% estimated probability
Manchester United have never kept a clean sheet, and both teams have scored in four of six games for both Leeds and United.
1X & both teams score
Leeds avoid defeat and both teams score
39% estimated probability
United have always conceded and have scored in four of six games. To Leeds avoiding defeat, as in every home game so far, we add both teams scoring.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.