Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sat 17 Oct · 16:00 CEST
Brentford vs Liverpool: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Liverpool regroup after a 3-0 home defeat to Manchester City and visit one of the surprises of the season. Brentford are fourth on 10 points and still unbeaten; Liverpool are ninth on 9 and have done better away from Anfield than at home: 7 points from three trips.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBrentford | AwayLiverpool |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th10 points | 9th9 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–4–0 | 2–3–1 |
| Goals for–against | 12–62.0–1.0 per match | 7–71.2–1.2 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 2in 3 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
The analysis
Brentford: unbeaten, with four draws
Two wins and four draws, 12 goals scored and 6 conceded. They have taken 7 points from three home games and drawn all three away, most recently 2-2 at Aston Villa. Four of their six games have produced at least three goals.
Liverpool: better on the road than at Anfield
Two wins, three draws and a defeat, 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. At Anfield Liverpool have taken just 2 points from three games; away from home 7 from three, without losing. They have kept three clean sheets and both teams have scored in only two of their six games.
What to expect
The model gives Brentford 48% and Liverpool 27%, with 1.6 expected goals to 1.1: this season’s numbers favour Brentford. The most likely score is 1-1 (12%), then 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%). Over 1.5 is at 75%, both teams to score at 54%. Liverpool, though, have not lost away from home yet.
Our prediction
Brentford vs Liverpool · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
75% estimated probability
Brentford score two goals a game and four of their six games have had at least three. Two in total are enough.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
54% estimated probability
Brentford have scored 12 and conceded 6, with only two clean sheets. Liverpool are unbeaten away: a goal for each side is the most natural scenario.
1X & both teams score
Brentford avoid defeat and both teams score
40% estimated probability
Brentford have not lost yet, Liverpool have taken 2 points from three games at Anfield and come off a 3-0 defeat to City. To the home side avoiding defeat we add both teams scoring.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.