Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 15:00 CEST
Brighton vs Crystal Palace: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
The Brighton v Crystal Palace derby pits the best attack in the Premier League against a mid-table side. Brighton are third on 13 points and have won their last three; Palace are twelfth on 7 and come off a 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBrighton | AwayCrystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd13 points | 12th7 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–1–1 | 2–1–3 |
| Goals for–against | 18–53.0–0.8 per match | 9–121.5–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Points away | 6in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Brighton: best attack and four clean sheets
Four wins, a draw and a defeat, 18 goals scored, the best attack in the Premier League, and 5 conceded. Brighton have kept four clean sheets in six games, the latest in the 2-0 at Sunderland, and taken 7 points from three home games.
Crystal Palace: better away than at home
Two wins, a draw and three defeats, 9 goals scored and 12 conceded, with one clean sheet. Away from home Palace have taken 4 points from three games, one more than at home. Last time out they beat Nottingham Forest 3-1.
What to expect
The model gives Brighton 71% and Palace 13%, with 2.7 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 2-1 (9%), 2-0 and 3-1 (8%), and Over 2.5 is at 73%, the highest of the Premier League round. Both teams have scored in four of Palace’s six games, but in only two of Brighton’s.
Our prediction
Brighton vs Crystal Palace · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1
Brighton win
71% estimated probability
Brighton have won their last three and have the best attack in the league, 18 goals. Palace have conceded 12 and kept just one clean sheet.
1 & Over 2.5
Brighton win and at least 3 goals in total
57% estimated probability
Brighton score three goals a game and four of Palace’s six games have gone over 2.5. If Brighton win, they will probably do it with at least three goals in the game.
1 & both teams score
Brighton win and both teams score
40% estimated probability
Palace have scored 9 goals and both teams have scored in four of their six games. We ask for a Brighton win with at least one Palace goal.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.