Premier League · Matchday 8 · Sat 24 Oct · 18:30 (Italian time)
Chelsea vs Tottenham: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
The London derby is on Saturday at 18:30 (Italian time). Chelsea are fourth on 13 points and have won their last two games, the latest 2-0 at Everton; Tottenham, sixteenth on 6, beat Coventry City 3-1 last time out for their first win of the season.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeChelsea | AwayTottenham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th13 points | 16th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–1–2 | 1–3–3 |
| Goals for–against | 17–132.4–1.9 per match | 6–100.9–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Points away | 6in 4 matches | 2in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
The analysis
Chelsea: six games out of seven with at least three goals
Four wins, a draw and two defeats, 17 goals scored and 13 conceded. Chelsea have kept just one clean sheet and six of their seven games have had at least three goals. At home they have taken 7 points from three games, away 6 from four; they have won their last two.
Tottenham: the first win of the season
One win, three draws and three defeats, 6 goals scored and 10 conceded. The 3-1 against Coventry City was their first success of the season. At home they have taken 4 points from four games, away 2 from three. They have kept two clean sheets and only three games have had at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Chelsea 59% and Tottenham 20%, with 2.1 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely score is 2-1 (10%), then 1-1 and 2-0 (9%). Six of Chelsea’s seven games have had at least three goals: Over 2.5 is at 63%, both teams to score at 59%.
Our prediction
Chelsea vs Tottenham · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Chelsea win or draw
80% estimated probability
The model gives Chelsea 59% and the draw 21%. Tottenham have won one game in seven and have taken 2 points from three away.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
59% estimated probability
Chelsea have conceded 13 goals in seven games and have kept just one clean sheet; both teams have scored in five of their games.
Over 3.5
At least 4 goals in total
40% estimated probability
Six of Chelsea’s seven games have had at least three goals and the model expects 3.2 in total. Four goals is the boldest choice.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.