Premier League · Matchday 8 · Sat 24 Oct · 16:00 (Italian time)
Coventry City vs Fulham: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Two sides from the lower half meet on Saturday at 16:00 (Italian time): Coventry City are seventeenth on 6 points, Fulham eighteenth on 5. The hosts come off a 3-1 defeat at Tottenham; Fulham beat Hull City 1-0, their first win of the season.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeCoventry City | AwayFulham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th6 points | 18th5 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–0–5 | 1–2–4 |
| Goals for–against | 6–140.9–2.0 per match | 7–101.0–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 1in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
The analysis
Coventry City: 14 goals conceded in seven games
Two wins and five defeats, 6 goals scored and 14 conceded: the defence has let in two goals a game and has kept just one clean sheet. At home they have taken 3 points from three games, away 3 from four; last time out they lost 3-1 at Tottenham. Both teams have scored in only two of their games.
Fulham: the first win of the season arrives now
One win, two draws and four defeats, 7 goals scored and 10 conceded. Fulham beat Hull City 1-0 last time out, their first success of the season; away they have taken 1 point from three games, at home 4 from four. They have kept two clean sheets and both teams have scored in four of their games.
What to expect
The model gives Fulham 41% and Coventry City 33%, with the draw at 26% and 1.4 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely score is 1-1 (13%), then 0-1 (10%) and 1-0 and 1-2 (9%). Coventry have scored 6 goals in seven games: the model expects 2.6 in total, with Under 2.5 and both teams to score both at 52%.
Our prediction
Coventry City vs Fulham · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
74% estimated probability
Coventry have scored 0.9 goals a game and Fulham 1.0. The model expects 2.6 goals in total and gives four or more 26%.
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
52% estimated probability
The two sides have scored 13 goals in 14 games, less than one a game. Coventry, though, have conceded 14 and four of their games have had at least three goals.
Not both score & Under 2.5
At least one team fails to score and at most 2 goals
40% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in only two of Coventry’s games and Fulham have kept two clean sheets. We choose a game with fewer than three goals in which at least one side fails to score.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.