Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sat 17 Oct · 16:00 CEST
Fulham vs Hull City: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Fulham are bottom, with 2 points and no wins in six games; Hull City, newly promoted, are eighth on 9 and have kept a clean sheet in half their games. At Craven Cottage, Fulham are looking for their first win of the season.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeFulham | AwayHull City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th2 points | 8th9 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 0–2–4 | 2–3–1 |
| Goals for–against | 6–101.0–1.7 per match | 8–61.3–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 3 matches | 5in 3 matches |
| Points away | 1in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
The analysis
Fulham: still without a win
Two draws and four defeats, 6 goals scored and 10 conceded: with Bournemouth and Tottenham, one of three Premier League teams still without a win. They have taken one point from three home games and kept just one clean sheet all season. Last time out they lost 2-1 at Ipswich.
Hull City: promoted and solid
Two wins, three draws and only one defeat: Hull have conceded 6 goals, with three clean sheets in six, and taken 4 points from three away games. They score little, 8 goals, and half their games have ended with fewer than three goals. Last time out they drew 2-2 with Everton.
What to expect
The model, which adds an outside estimate of team strength to this season’s numbers, gives Fulham 43% and Hull 31%, despite the table. Expected goals are 1.4 to 1.1, just 2.5 in total; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%). Under 3.5 is at 75%.
Our prediction
Fulham vs Hull City · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Fulham win or draw
69% estimated probability
Fulham have not won yet, but the model puts their chance of a home defeat at 31%. Hull have drawn three of six.
1X & Under 3.5
Fulham avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
52% estimated probability
Half of Hull’s games have ended with fewer than three goals and their defence has conceded 6. To Fulham avoiding defeat we add at most three goals.
1
Fulham win
43% estimated probability
A first Fulham win is the boldest pick: the model rates it at 43%, against Hull’s 31%, but the team has lost four of six.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.