Premier League · Matchday 8 · Fri 23 Oct · 21:00 (Italian time)
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Ipswich Town and Nottingham Forest open matchday 8 of the Premier League on Friday at 21:00 (Italian time). The hosts are tenth on 9 points and come off a 3-2 defeat at Manchester City; Forest are nineteenth on 5, have lost their last three games and come off a 1-0 home defeat to Arsenal.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeIpswich Town | AwayNottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th9 points | 19th5 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–0–4 | 1–2–4 |
| Goals for–against | 11–151.6–2.1 per match | 5–90.7–1.3 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 3 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
The analysis
Ipswich Town: no clean sheets in seven games
Three wins and four defeats, 11 goals scored and 15 conceded. Ipswich have never kept a clean sheet; at home they have taken 6 points from three games, away 3 from four. Five of their seven games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five. Last time out they lost 3-2 at Manchester City.
Nottingham Forest: one point from four home games
One win, two draws and four defeats, 5 goals scored and 9 conceded. Forest have lost their last three games, the latest 1-0 at home to Arsenal; at home they have taken 1 point from four games, away 4 from three. Only three games have had at least three goals and Forest have kept one clean sheet.
What to expect
The model gives Ipswich Town 40%, Nottingham Forest 35% and the draw 26%, with 1.4 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely score is 1-1 (12%), then 1-0 and 2-1 (9%). Ipswich have never kept a clean sheet: Over 1.5 is at 76%, both teams to score at 56%.
Our prediction
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
76% estimated probability
Ipswich have scored 11 goals and conceded 15 in seven games, and five of their games have had at least three goals. Two are enough: the model expects 2.7.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
56% estimated probability
Ipswich have never kept a clean sheet and both teams have scored in five of their seven games. The model gives the hosts 1.4 expected goals and Forest 1.3.
1X & both teams score
Ipswich Town avoid defeat and both teams score
38% estimated probability
To Ipswich avoiding defeat (66% in the model) we add both teams scoring. Forest have lost their last three games and have taken one point at home, while Ipswich have 6 points from three home games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.