Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sat 17 Oct · 16:00 CEST
Manchester City vs Ipswich Town: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Manchester City have won all six games, the latest 3-0 at Anfield, and lead the table on 18 points, three ahead of Arsenal. Ipswich, newly promoted and tenth on 9, come to the Etihad with three wins, three defeats and a defence that has never kept a clean sheet.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeManchester City | AwayIpswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st18 points | 10th9 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 6–0–0 | 3–0–3 |
| Goals for–against | 16–52.7–0.8 per match | 9–121.5–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 3 matches | 6in 3 matches |
| Points away | 9in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 6 | 0 of 6 |
The analysis
Manchester City: six out of six
Six wins, 16 goals scored and 5 conceded, three clean sheets. City have won three games at home and three away, including last weekend’s 3-0 at Liverpool. Four of their games have produced at least three goals.
Ipswich: always conceding
Three wins and three defeats, 9 goals scored and 12 conceded: Ipswich have never kept a clean sheet. They have won two of three at home and one of three away. Last time out they beat Fulham 2-1.
What to expect
The model gives City 77% and Ipswich 9%, with 2.8 expected goals to 0.8: the highest figure of the 48 games this week. The most likely scores are 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9%), and a win by two or more is at 57%. Both teams have scored in four of Ipswich’s six games: an Ipswich goal is rated at 56%.
Our prediction
Manchester City vs Ipswich Town · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1
Manchester City win
77% estimated probability
City have won all six games, three at home and three away. Ipswich have lost two of three away games.
Manchester City win by 2+ goals
Manchester City win by at least two goals
57% estimated probability
Ipswich have conceded in every game, 12 in total, and City score almost three goals a game: the model gives them 2.8.
1 & both teams score
Manchester City win and both teams score
37% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in four of Ipswich’s six games, and City have kept a clean sheet in only half of theirs. We ask for a City win with at least one Ipswich goal.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.