Premier League · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 15:00 (Italian time)
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Manchester United are thirteenth on 7 points and have drawn four of their last five games, the latest 1-1 at Leeds; on Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time) they host Bournemouth, fifteenth on 6, who beat Sunderland 2-0 but have taken only one point from three away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeManchester United | AwayBournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th7 points | 15th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–4–2 | 1–3–3 |
| Goals for–against | 10–101.4–1.4 per match | 9–131.3–1.9 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 3 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 1in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
The analysis
Manchester United: four draws in five games
One win, four draws and two defeats, 10 goals scored and 10 conceded, without a clean sheet. United have drawn four of their last five, the latest 1-1 at Leeds. At home they have taken 4 points from three games, away 3 from four. Both teams have scored in five of their seven games, but only two have had at least three goals.
Bournemouth: one point from three away games
One win, three draws and three defeats, 9 goals scored and 13 conceded. The 2-0 against Sunderland last time out was their first win of the season. Away from home Bournemouth have taken 1 point from three games, at home 5 from four. Four of their seven games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five.
What to expect
The model gives Manchester United 49% and Bournemouth 27%, with 1.8 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely score is 1-1 (11%), then 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). Both teams have scored in five of United’s seven games and five of Bournemouth’s: both teams to score is rated at 59%, Over 2.5 at 57%.
Our prediction
Manchester United vs Bournemouth · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Manchester United win or draw
73% estimated probability
United have drawn their last three games and have lost two of seven; Bournemouth have taken one point from three away. The model gives United or the draw 73%.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
59% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in five of United’s seven games and five of Bournemouth’s. United have never kept a clean sheet and Bournemouth have kept one.
1X & Over 2.5
Manchester United avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
41% estimated probability
Bournemouth have conceded 13 goals, 1.9 a game, and the model expects 3.0 in total; to United avoiding defeat we add at least three goals. Only two of United’s games have ended that way, but four of seven of Bournemouth’s.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.