Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sat 17 Oct · 18:30 CEST
Newcastle vs Aston Villa: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Newcastle return to St James’ Park after a 4-1 defeat at Coventry and sit eleventh on 8 points. Aston Villa, sixteenth on 5, are still without a home win but have taken 4 points from three away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeNewcastle | AwayAston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th8 points | 16th5 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–2 | 1–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 10–131.7–2.2 per match | 6–111.0–1.8 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 3 matches | 1in 3 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Newcastle: always open games
Two wins, two draws and two defeats, 10 goals scored and 13 conceded. Five of Newcastle’s six games have produced at least three goals and in five both teams have scored. At home they are unbeaten: one win and two draws.
Aston Villa: one point at home, four away
One win, two draws and three defeats, 6 goals scored and 11 conceded. Aston Villa have taken more points away, 4 from three games, than at home, where they have only one. They have kept one clean sheet; last time out they drew 2-2 with Brentford.
What to expect
The model gives Newcastle 49% and Aston Villa 28%, with 1.8 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely score is 1-1 (10%), then 2-1 (9%). The two defences have conceded 24 goals in twelve games and neither has kept more than one clean sheet: both teams to score and Over 2.5 are each at 62%.
Our prediction
Newcastle vs Aston Villa · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Newcastle win or draw
72% estimated probability
Newcastle are unbeaten at home, 5 points from three games. Aston Villa are sixteenth and have won only once.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
62% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in five of Newcastle’s six games, and each defence has kept just one clean sheet.
1 & Over 2.5
Newcastle win and at least 3 goals in total
35% estimated probability
Five of Newcastle’s six games have gone over 2.5 goals. If they win, it will probably be in a game with at least three goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.