Premier League · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 17:30 CEST
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Arsenal are second on 15 points, three behind Manchester City, and want to keep pace at the City Ground. Nottingham Forest are fifteenth on 5, still without a home win and on the back of two straight defeats.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeNottingham Forest | AwayArsenal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th5 points | 2nd15 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–2–3 | 5–0–1 |
| Goals for–against | 5–80.8–1.3 per match | 10–51.7–0.8 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 3 matches | 9in 3 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 6in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
The analysis
Nottingham Forest: one point at home
One win, two draws and three defeats, 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. At the City Ground Forest have taken a single point from three games, while away they have 4. They score little, less than a goal a game, and have kept one clean sheet.
Arsenal: five wins in six games
Five wins and a defeat, 10 goals scored and 5 conceded, three clean sheets. Away from home Arsenal have won two of three. Both teams have scored in only two of their six games: when they win, they often do it without conceding.
What to expect
The model gives Arsenal 54% and Forest 21%, with 1.6 expected goals to 0.9. The most likely score is 0-1 (14%), then 1-1 (12%) and 0-2 (11%). Arsenal’s clean sheet is rated at 43% and “both teams to score: no” at 55%: Forest score little and Arsenal concede very little.
Our prediction
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Arsenal win or draw
79% estimated probability
Arsenal have lost only once in six rounds and Forest have taken one point from three home games.
2
Arsenal win
54% estimated probability
Five wins in six for Arsenal, two of three away. Forest have lost their last two and score less than a goal a game.
Arsenal win to nil
Arsenal win without conceding
34% estimated probability
Arsenal have kept three clean sheets and both teams have scored in only two of their six games; Forest have scored 5 goals in six rounds. We ask for an Arsenal win without conceding.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.