Premier League · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 17:30 (Italian time)
Sunderland vs Leeds: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Sunderland, bottom on 4 points, close the Premier League round against Leeds on Sunday at 17:30 (Italian time). The hosts have lost their last four games, the latest 2-0 at Bournemouth; Leeds, seventh on 10, have drawn four of their seven games, the latest 1-1 with Manchester United.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeSunderland | AwayLeeds |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th4 points | 7th10 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–1–5 | 2–4–1 |
| Goals for–against | 6–140.9–2.0 per match | 9–61.3–0.9 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Points away | 1in 4 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
The analysis
Sunderland: four defeats in a row
One win, a draw and five defeats, 6 goals scored and 14 conceded: Sunderland have lost their last four games, the latest 2-0 at Bournemouth. At home they have taken 3 points from three games, away 1 from four. They have kept just one clean sheet and only two games have had at least three goals.
Leeds: only 6 goals conceded and four draws
Two wins, four draws and a defeat, 9 goals scored and 6 conceded. Leeds have kept two clean sheets and only two games have had at least three goals; they are unbeaten at home (6 points from four games) and have taken 4 points from three away. Last time out they drew 1-1 with Manchester United.
What to expect
The model gives Leeds 47% and Sunderland 27%, with 1.5 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 0-1 (12%), then 1-2 and 0-2 (9%). A Leeds clean sheet, with 6 goals conceded in seven games, is at 35%; Over 2.5 is at 46%, both teams to score at 50%.
Our prediction
Sunderland vs Leeds · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Leeds win or draw
73% estimated probability
Leeds have lost just one game in seven and Sunderland five. The model gives the draw 26% and Leeds 47%.
X2 & Under 3.5
Leeds avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
54% estimated probability
Only two of Leeds’s games and two of Sunderland’s have had at least three goals; the model expects 2.5 in total. To Leeds avoiding defeat we add a ceiling of three goals.
Leeds clean sheet
Leeds do not concede
35% estimated probability
Sunderland have scored 6 goals in seven games and Leeds have conceded 6, with two clean sheets. The model gives Sunderland 1.0 expected goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.