Premier League · Matchday 7 · Mon 19 Oct · 21:00 CEST
Tottenham vs Coventry City: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
The Monday night game closes the Premier League round. Tottenham are second from bottom on 3 points, still without a win and with just 3 goals in six games, the weakest attack in the league; Coventry, newly promoted, are fourteenth on 6 and come off two straight wins, the latest 4-1 against Newcastle.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeTottenham | AwayCoventry City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th3 points | 14th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 0–3–3 | 2–0–4 |
| Goals for–against | 3–90.5–1.5 per match | 5–110.8–1.8 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Points away | 2in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Tottenham: three goals in six games
Three draws and three defeats: Tottenham have scored 3 goals, the lowest in the Premier League, and conceded 9. They have kept two clean sheets and only two of their games have gone over 2.5 goals. At home they have taken one point from three games; last time out they drew 1-1 at Old Trafford.
Coventry: two wins after three defeats
Two wins and four defeats, 5 goals scored and 11 conceded. After three straight defeats Coventry have won their last two, most recently thrashing Newcastle 4-1: before that game they had scored a single goal in five rounds. Away from home they have taken 3 points from three games.
What to expect
The model gives Tottenham 51% and Coventry 22%: this season’s numbers are weak for both, and the outside estimate of team strength weighs. Expected goals are 1.5 to 0.9 and the most likely scores are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 and 0-0 (10%). Under 2.5 is at 59%: both teams have scored in only one of Coventry’s six games.
Our prediction
Tottenham vs Coventry City · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Tottenham win or draw
78% estimated probability
Tottenham have not won yet, but they have lost only three of six; Coventry, before their last two wins, had scored a single goal in five games.
1
Tottenham win
51% estimated probability
The model gives Tottenham 51% against Coventry’s 22%, and Coventry have lost two of three away games. It is the chance for a first win.
Tottenham clean sheet
Tottenham do not concede
42% estimated probability
Coventry have scored 5 goals in six rounds, four of them against Newcastle. Tottenham have kept two clean sheets in six.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.