Serie A · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 15:00 (Italian time)
Atalanta vs Frosinone: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Atalanta host Frosinone on Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time). The Bergamo side are eleventh on 9 points and come off a 3-2 defeat at Milan, their fourth in the last five games; Frosinone are sixth on 13 and beat Sassuolo 4-2 with a Raimondo hat-trick, which takes him to 7 goals and the top of the scorers’ table.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAtalanta | AwayFrosinone |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th9 points | 6th13 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–0–4 | 4–1–2 |
| Goals for–against | 10–111.4–1.6 per match | 13–91.9–1.3 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 4 matches | 9in 4 matches |
| Points away | 0in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
The analysis
Atalanta: all their points at home
Three wins and four defeats, 10 goals scored and 11 conceded. All 9 points have come in Bergamo, where they have won three of four; away they have no points from three, the latest a 3-2 defeat at Milan. Five of their seven games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five. Scalvini, Kessié, Kolašinac, Kossounou, Hien and Raspadori are out; Sulemana is doubtful.
Frosinone: Raimondo has scored 7 of 13
Four wins, a draw and two defeats, 13 goals scored and 9 conceded, with two clean sheets. Away they have taken 4 points from three games. Raimondo has scored 7 of Frosinone’s 13 goals, three of them in the 4-2 against Sassuolo; Grillitsch is out.
What to expect
The model gives Atalanta 44% and Frosinone 32%, with 1.6 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely score is 1-1 (11%), ahead of 2-1 and 1-0 (9%). Both teams to score is rated at 59%, Over 2.5 at 56%. Raimondo has a 41% chance of scoring, the second-highest figure of the Serie A round behind Thuram; for Atalanta the highest is Krstović (39%).
Our prediction
Atalanta vs Frosinone · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
79% estimated probability
Two are enough: the model expects 2.9 goals in total. Five of Atalanta’s seven games and four of Frosinone’s have had at least three goals.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
59% estimated probability
Frosinone have scored 13 goals in seven games against a defence, Atalanta’s, that has kept just one clean sheet and conceded 11. Both teams have scored in five of Atalanta’s seven games.
Antonio Raimondo to score
Antonio Raimondo scores at least once
41% estimated probability
He has scored 7 of Frosinone’s 13 goals, three of them last time out, and faces an Atalanta side that have conceded 11 goals in seven games and have six players out. He is the highest figure in the game.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Atalanta clean sheet
- 26%
- Frosinone clean sheet
- 20%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.