Serie A · Matchday 8 · Sat 24 Oct · 15:00 (Italian time)
Cagliari vs Bologna: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Cagliari, seventh on 13 points, host Bologna on Saturday at 15:00 (Italian time). The Sardinians come off a 4-0 defeat at Monza but have won three of their last five; the Emilians are fifteenth on 5 points, come off a 3-1 home defeat to Inter and are without Orsolini and Piccoli until mid or late November, and Holm until February.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeCagliari | AwayBologna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th13 points | 15th5 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–1–2 | 1–2–4 |
| Goals for–against | 6–70.9–1.0 per match | 6–100.9–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 3 matches | 2in 4 matches |
| Points away | 9in 4 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 7 | 0 of 7 |
The analysis
Cagliari: 13 points with a negative goal difference
Four wins, a draw and two defeats, but only 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. Away from home they have taken 9 points from four games, at home 4 from three, and they have kept three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 4-0 at Monza. Felici and Idrissi are out, both with a ruptured cruciate ligament.
Bologna: one win and no clean sheets
One win, two draws and four defeats, 6 goals scored and 10 conceded. Bologna have never kept a clean sheet; at home they have taken 2 points from four games, away 3 from three, with their only win of the season coming at Lecce. Orsolini, Piccoli and Holm are out.
What to expect
The model gives Cagliari 39% and Bologna 32%, with the draw at 29% and 1.2 expected goals to 1.0. The four most likely scores are all low: 1-1 and 1-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%) and 0-0 (11%). Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in three of seven games and only two of their games have had at least three goals: Under 2.5 at 63%, both teams to score at 44%. Maldini has a 33% chance of scoring, the only Cagliari player above 25%: he has scored 4 of the team’s 6 goals.
Our prediction
Cagliari vs Bologna · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Bologna under 1.5 goals
Bologna score at most once
73% estimated probability
Bologna have scored 6 goals in seven games and face Cagliari’s defence, which has conceded 7. The model gives them 1.0 expected goals.
Both teams to score: no
At least one team fails to score
56% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in only two of Cagliari’s seven games and they have kept a clean sheet three times. Bologna average 0.9 goals a game.
X2 & Under 2.5
Bologna avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
42% estimated probability
Cagliari have scored only 6 goals in seven games and only two of their games have had more than two goals. The model gives a draw or a Bologna win 61% and games with fewer than three goals 63%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Cagliari clean sheet
- 36%
- Bologna clean sheet
- 32%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.