Serie A · Matchday 9 · Thu 29 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: preview and prediction
Preview
Fiorentina v Atalanta closes the midweek round on Thursday at 20:45 (Italian time). The Viola are eighteenth on 4 points, have the most-beaten defence in the league (19 goals in eight games) and come off a 2-1 defeat at Inter; Atalanta, eleventh on 10, drew 4-4 at home to Frosinone and have yet to take a point away from home. Parisi is out for Fiorentina; Kessié, Kolašinac, Kossounou, Hien and Raspadori are out for Atalanta.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeFiorentina | AwayAtalanta |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th4 points | 11th10 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–1–6 | 3–1–4 |
| Goals for–against | 9–191.1–2.4 per match | 14–151.8–1.9 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 4 matches | 10in 5 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 0in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 8 | 1 of 8 |
The analysis
Fiorentina: seven games out of eight with at least three goals
One win, a draw and six defeats, 9 goals scored and 19 conceded: the most-beaten defence in Serie A, and they have never kept a clean sheet. At home they have taken 1 point from four games, away 3 from four; last time out they lost 2-1 at Inter. Seven of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six. Parisi is out; Atta, Pongračić and Ranieri are doubtful.
Atalanta: zero points from three away games
Three wins, a draw and four defeats, 14 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from five games, away none from three. They come off a 4-4 draw with Frosinone, in which Krstović scored twice. Six of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six. Kessié, Kolašinac, Kossounou, Hien and Raspadori are out; Scalvini, Sulemana and Bellanova are doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Atalanta 40% and Fiorentina 37%, with the draw at 23% and 1.7 expected goals to 1.6. The most likely scores are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 and 2-1 (8%) and 2-2 (7%): at 3.3 expected goals in total it is one of the three highest-scoring games of the round. Both teams to score is rated at 66%, Over 2.5 at 65%. Krstović has a 44% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Mastantuono follows at 32%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Fiorentina vs Atalanta · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Total goals 2-5
From 2 to 5 goals in total
72% estimated probability
Seven of Fiorentina’s eight games and six of Atalanta’s have had at least three goals. The model expects 3.3 in total: Total goals 2-5 rules out only 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and games with six goals or more.
Came true
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
56% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in six of eight games for Fiorentina and in six of eight for Atalanta, and Fiorentina have never kept a clean sheet. The model rates both teams to score at 66% and Over 2.5 at 65%: together they are at 56%.
Came true
Nikola Krstović to score
Nikola Krstović scores at least once
44% estimated probability
He has scored 6 goals this season, two of them against Frosinone in the 4-4, and faces the most-beaten defence in Serie A, 19 goals in eight games. He is the highest figure in the game.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Fiorentina clean sheet
- 18%
- Atalanta clean sheet
- 19%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.