Serie A · Matchday 9 · Thu 29 Oct · 18:30 (Italian time)
Frosinone vs Lecce: preview and prediction
Preview
Frosinone, sixth on 14 points, host Lecce, twelfth on 9, on Thursday at 18:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 4-4 draw at Atalanta and have Raimondo at the top of the scorers’ table with 7 goals, level with Varela; Lecce, who have yet to draw in eight games, lost 2-0 at home to Juventus. Grillitsch, Gelli, Lolice and Koné are out for Frosinone; Lecce are without the suspended Gaspar, Coulibaly, Berisha, Pierotti and Laerke.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeFrosinone | AwayLecce |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th14 points | 12th9 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–2–2 | 3–0–5 |
| Goals for–against | 17–132.1–1.6 per match | 9–141.1–1.8 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 4 matches | 3in 4 matches |
| Points away | 5in 4 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
The analysis
Frosinone: 17 goals in eight games
Four wins, two draws and two defeats, 17 goals scored and 13 conceded: the third-best attack in Serie A, behind Inter and Roma. At home they have taken 9 points from four games, away 5 from four. Last time out they drew 4-4 at Atalanta, after a 4-2 win over Sassuolo. Five of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four. Grillitsch, Gelli, Lolice and Koné are out.
Lecce: more points away than at home
Three wins and five defeats, no draws, 9 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from four games, away 6 from four; last time out they lost 2-0 to Juventus. Five of their eight games have had at least three goals, but both teams have scored in only two; they have kept a clean sheet twice. Coulibaly, Berisha, Pierotti and Laerke are out, Gaspar is suspended and Tiago Gabriel is doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Frosinone 60% and Lecce 19%, with the draw at 20% and 2.1 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 2-1 (10%), 1-1 and 2-0 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 63%, both teams to score at 59%; a Frosinone clean sheet is rated at 33%. Raimondo has a 51% chance of scoring, the highest figure of the round; Kvernadze follows at 33%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Frosinone vs Lecce · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Frosinone win or draw
81% estimated probability
Lecce have lost five of eight games and have taken 6 points from four away; Frosinone have 9 from four at home. The model gives Frosinone 60% and the draw 20%.
Came true
Frosinone 2+ goals
Frosinone score at least twice
62% estimated probability
Frosinone score 2.1 goals a game and Lecce have conceded 14 in eight, 1.8 a game. The model gives Frosinone 2.1 expected goals.
Came true
Antonio Raimondo scores & Frosinone win
Antonio Raimondo scores and Frosinone win
39% estimated probability
To Raimondo’s goal we add a Frosinone win, which the model rates at 60%. He has scored 7 of the team’s 17 goals, is level with Varela at the top of the scorers’ table and faces a Lecce side that have conceded 14 in eight games. His 51% chance of scoring is the highest figure of the round.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Frosinone clean sheet
- 33%
- Lecce clean sheet
- 12%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.