Serie A · Matchday 9 · Tue 27 Oct · 18:30 (Italian time)
Sassuolo vs Lazio: preview and prediction
Preview
Sassuolo, fourteenth on 8 points, host Lazio, second on 22 and still unbeaten, on Tuesday at 18:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-0 defeat at Como and have not kept a clean sheet in any of their eight games; Lazio beat Parma 2-1 and have won all four away games. Idzes, Leysen and I. Koné are out for Sassuolo; Lazio are without Gudmundsson, Marusic, Rovella and Pinamonti, and Cancellieri is doubtful.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeSassuolo | AwayLazio |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th8 points | 2nd22 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–4 | 7–1–0 |
| Goals for–against | 12–161.5–2.0 per match | 16–52.0–0.6 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 1in 5 matches | 12in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
The analysis
Sassuolo: no clean sheets in eight games
Two wins, two draws and four defeats, 12 goals scored and 16 conceded. Both teams have scored in seven of their eight games, six have had at least three goals and they have never kept a clean sheet. At home they have taken 7 points from three games, away 1 from five. Last time out they lost 2-0 at Como. Idzes, Leysen and I. Koné are out.
Lazio: unbeaten, four wins from four away games
Seven wins and a draw, 16 goals scored and 5 conceded: the best defence in Serie A, with four clean sheets. They have taken 12 points from four away games and 10 from four at home; last time out they beat Parma 2-1. Five of their eight games have had at least three goals. Gudmundsson, Marusic, Rovella and Pinamonti are out; Cancellieri is doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Lazio 52% and Sassuolo 25%, with the draw at 24% and 1.8 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (11%), 0-1 and 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (9%). A Sassuolo clean sheet, which they have never achieved, is rated at 17%; both teams to score is at 56%, Over 2.5 at 55%. Zaccagni has a 26% chance of scoring, Noslin 25%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Sassuolo vs Lazio · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Lazio to score
At least one goal for Lazio
83% estimated probability
Sassuolo have conceded in all eight games and have let in 16, two a game. The model gives Lazio 1.8 expected goals and a Sassuolo clean sheet 17%.
Came true
Lazio 2+ goals
Lazio score at least twice
52% estimated probability
Lazio have scored 16 goals in eight games, 2.0 a game, and have won all four away; Sassuolo have conceded 16, also two a game. The model gives Lazio 1.8 expected goals.
Came true
2 & Over 2.5
Lazio win and at least 3 goals in total
33% estimated probability
To a Lazio win we add at least three goals: six of Sassuolo’s eight games and five of Lazio’s have had more than two goals, and the model expects 2.9 in total. It is the boldest pick of the game.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Sassuolo clean sheet
- 17%
- Lazio clean sheet
- 32%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.