Serie A · Matchday 9 · Wed 28 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
Genoa vs Juventus: preview and prediction
Preview
Genoa, sixteenth on 7 points, host Juventus, seventh on 14, on Wednesday at 20:45 (Italian time). The hosts beat Venezia 1-0 and have taken 7 points from five home games, but have scored only 6 goals in the league; Juventus come off a 2-0 win at Lecce and have kept a clean sheet four times. Sow, Venturino, Wiafe, Ehizibue, Nuredini and Havelange are out for Genoa, with Østigård one booking away from suspension; Juventus are without Yildiz, Conceição, Çelik, Nico González, Ekhator, K. Thuram, Locatelli and Milik.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeGenoa | AwayJuventus |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th7 points | 7th14 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–1–5 | 4–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 6–130.8–1.6 per match | 11–81.4–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 5 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Points away | 0in 3 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
The analysis
Genoa: 6 goals in eight games
Two wins, a draw and five defeats, 6 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have taken 7 points from five games, away 0 from three. Last time out they beat Venezia 1-0. Only three of their eight games have had at least three goals, and both teams have scored in four. Sow, Venturino, Wiafe, Ehizibue, Nuredini and Havelange are out; Østigård is one booking away from suspension.
Juventus: four clean sheets in eight games
Four wins, two draws and two defeats, 11 goals scored and 8 conceded. They have taken 7 points from four home games and 7 from four away; last time out they won 2-0 at Lecce. Only two of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in three. Yildiz, Conceição, Çelik, Nico González, Ekhator, K. Thuram, Locatelli and Milik are out.
What to expect
The model gives Juventus 52%, Genoa 21% and the draw 26%, with 1.5 expected goals to 0.8. The most likely scores are 0-1 (14%), 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%) and 0-0 (10%): at 2.3 expected goals in total it is the lowest-scoring game of the round. Under 2.5 is at 59%, both teams to score at 44%; a Juventus clean sheet is rated at 43%. Kolo Muani has a 26% chance of scoring, Osmajić 24%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Genoa vs Juventus · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Juventus win or draw
79% estimated probability
Genoa have lost five of eight games and have scored 6 goals; Juventus have lost two. The model gives Juventus 52% and the draw 26%.
Did not come true
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
59% estimated probability
Only three of Genoa’s eight games and two of Juventus’s have had at least three goals. The model expects 2.3 goals in total, the lowest figure of the round.
Came true
2 & Under 3.5
Juventus win and at most 3 goals in total
39% estimated probability
To a Juventus win we add a ceiling of three goals: Juventus have kept a clean sheet in four of eight games and Genoa have scored 6 goals in eight. The model’s most likely score is 0-1 (14%).
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Genoa clean sheet
- 23%
- Juventus clean sheet
- 43%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.