Serie A · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 15:00 (Italian time)
Genoa vs Venezia: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
A bottom-of-the-table clash: Genoa are seventeenth on 4 points, Venezia last on 3. The Venetians come off their first win of the season, 1-0 against Napoli; the Ligurians off a 2-0 defeat at Roma. On Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time) Baldanzi is doubtful with a groin problem and Ostigard is one booking away from suspension.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeGenoa | AwayVenezia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th4 points | 20th3 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–1–5 | 1–0–6 |
| Goals for–against | 5–130.7–1.9 per match | 6–160.9–2.3 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 3in 4 matches |
| Points away | 0in 3 matches | 0in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
The analysis
Genoa: 5 goals in seven games
One win, a draw and five defeats, 5 goals scored and 13 conceded, without a clean sheet. Their only win and only draw came at home (4 points from four games); away they have no points from three, the latest a 2-0 defeat at Roma. Osmajić has scored 3 of the 5 goals. Colombo, Meichtry, Sow and Venturino are out.
Venezia: a first win, but 16 goals conceded
One win and six defeats, 6 goals scored and 16 conceded: only Fiorentina have let in more (17), while Udinese have conceded as many as Venezia. After six straight defeats they beat Napoli 1-0; away from home they have no points from three games. Franjić, Busio, Sverko and Adorante are out; Correia is doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Genoa 46% and Venezia 28%, with 1.5 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely score is 1-1 (12%), then 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%). Both teams to score is rated at 52%, Over 2.5 at 49%. Osmajić has a 40% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; for Venezia the highest is Adams (26%).
Our prediction
Genoa vs Venezia · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Genoa to score
At least one goal for Genoa
78% estimated probability
Genoa have scored 5 goals in seven games, but they face one of the most-beaten defences in the league: Venezia have conceded 16 and kept a clean sheet only once. The model gives them 1.5 expected goals.
1X & Over 1.5
Genoa avoid defeat and at least 2 goals in total
53% estimated probability
Venezia have no points from three away games, while Genoa have taken 4 points from four at home. The model gives Genoa 46% and the draw 26%; at least two goals in total is at 74%.
Milutin Osmajić to score
Milutin Osmajić scores at least once
40% estimated probability
He has scored 3 of Genoa’s 5 goals and faces Venezia’s defence, which has conceded 16 in seven games. He is the highest figure in the game.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Genoa clean sheet
- 33%
- Venezia clean sheet
- 22%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.