Serie A · Matchday 9 · Wed 28 Oct · 18:30 (Italian time)
Milan vs Bologna: preview and prediction
Preview
Milan, fourth on 18 points and still unbeaten, host Bologna on Wednesday at 18:30 (Italian time). The Rossoneri come off a 2-0 win at Udinese; Bologna, thirteenth on 8, won 2-0 at Cagliari and have taken 6 points from four away games, only 2 at home. Rabiot, Gabbia, Saelemaekers, Gila and Loftus-Cheek are out for Milan, with Moreira and Chukwueze doubtful; Bologna are without Orsolini and Piccoli, and Holm is out until spring.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMilan | AwayBologna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th18 points | 13th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 5–3–0 | 2–2–4 |
| Goals for–against | 16–72.0–0.9 per match | 8–101.0–1.2 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 3 matches | 2in 4 matches |
| Points away | 9in 5 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 8 | 1 of 8 |
The analysis
Milan: eight games without defeat
Five wins and three draws, 16 goals scored and 7 conceded. Milan are unbeaten, have taken 9 points from three home games and 9 from five away, and have kept three clean sheets. Last time out they won 2-0 at Udinese. Both teams have scored in five of their eight games. Rabiot, Gabbia, Saelemaekers, Gila and Loftus-Cheek are out; Moreira and Chukwueze are doubtful.
Bologna: 2 points from four home games
Two wins, two draws and four defeats, 8 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have taken 2 points from four games, away 6 from four, with both of the season’s wins. Last time out they won 2-0 at Cagliari. Three of their eight games have had at least three goals and they have kept one clean sheet. Orsolini and Piccoli are out; Holm is out until spring.
What to expect
The model gives Milan 61% and Bologna 16%, with the draw at 23% and 1.8 expected goals to 0.8. The most likely scores are 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%) and 2-1 (10%). A Milan clean sheet is rated at 45%, the second highest of the round after Roma’s (55%); both teams to score is at 46%, Over 2.5 at 48%. Ramos has a 31% chance of scoring, Pulisic 25%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Milan vs Bologna · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Bologna under 1.5 goals
Bologna score at most once
81% estimated probability
Bologna have scored 8 goals in eight games, one a game, and face Milan’s defence, which has conceded 7. The model gives them 0.8 expected goals.
Did not come true
1
Milan win
61% estimated probability
Milan are unbeaten and have taken 9 points from three home games; Bologna have lost four of eight. The model gives Milan 61% and the draw 23%.
Did not come true
Milan clean sheet
Milan do not concede
45% estimated probability
Milan have kept a clean sheet in three of eight games and have conceded 7 goals, fewer than one a game. The model rates it at 45%, the second highest figure of the round.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Milan clean sheet
- 45%
- Bologna clean sheet
- 17%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.