Serie A · Matchday 9 · Wed 28 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
Monza vs Napoli: preview and prediction
Preview
Monza, fifteenth on 7 points, host Napoli, tenth on 11, on Wednesday at 20:45 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 3-2 defeat at Torino and have seen both teams score in seven of their eight games; Napoli drew 3-3 at home to Roma. Varela, on 7 goals, is level with Raimondo at the top of the scorers’ table. Pessina, Touré, Ziółkowski and Mayey are out for Monza, with Ciurria doubtful; Napoli are without Alisson Santos, Neres, Favasuli, Buongiorno, Badiashile and Rrahmani.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMonza | AwayNapoli |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th7 points | 10th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–1–5 | 3–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 15–181.9–2.2 per match | 13–101.6–1.2 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 3 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Points away | 1in 5 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
The analysis
Monza: both teams scored in seven of eight games
Two wins, a draw and five defeats, 15 goals scored and 18 conceded. Both teams have scored in seven of their eight games and seven have had at least three goals; they have kept a clean sheet only once. At home they have taken 6 points from three games, away 1 from five. Last time out they lost 3-2 at Torino, with a goal from Varela, who has scored 7 in the league. Pessina, Touré, Ziółkowski and Mayey are out; Ciurria is doubtful.
Napoli: three clean sheets in eight games
Three wins, two draws and three defeats, 13 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have taken 7 points from four games, away 4 from four, and they have kept three clean sheets. They come off a 3-3 draw with Roma. Four of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four. Alisson Santos, Neres, Favasuli, Buongiorno, Badiashile and Rrahmani are out.
What to expect
The model gives Napoli 48% and Monza 30%, with the draw at 23% and 1.9 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 and 0-1 (7%): at 3.3 expected goals in total it is one of the three highest-scoring games of the round. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 are both at 64%; a Monza clean sheet is rated at 16%. Varela has a 38% chance of scoring, De Bruyne 32%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Monza vs Napoli · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
84% estimated probability
Two are enough: the model expects 3.3 goals in total. Seven of Monza’s eight games and four of Napoli’s have had at least three goals, and Monza have conceded 18.
Came true
Both teams to score
Both teams score
64% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in seven of Monza’s eight games and in four of Napoli’s. Monza have kept a clean sheet only once; Napoli have scored 13 goals, 1.6 a game.
Came true
Gustavo Varela to score
Gustavo Varela scores at least once
38% estimated probability
He has scored 7 of Monza’s 15 goals, including the goal at Torino last time out, and is level with Raimondo at the top of the scorers’ table. Napoli have conceded 10 goals in eight games and have six players out. He is the highest figure in the game.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Monza clean sheet
- 16%
- Napoli clean sheet
- 24%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.