Serie A · Matchday 8 · Sat 24 Oct · 18:00 (Italian time)
Napoli vs Roma: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Napoli v Roma, on Saturday at 18:00 (Italian time), is one of the most anticipated games of the round. Napoli are ninth on 10 points and come off a 1-0 defeat at Venezia; Roma, third on 17, are unbeaten and have conceded just 3 goals in seven games. Malen returns for the visitors after suspension, but Svilar, Dybala, Pellegrini and Manu Koné are out.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeNapoli | AwayRoma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th10 points | 3rd17 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–1–3 | 5–2–0 |
| Goals for–against | 10–71.4–1.0 per match | 16–32.3–0.4 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 3 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
The analysis
Napoli: two wins from three at home
Three wins, a draw and three defeats, 10 goals scored and 7 conceded. At home they have taken 6 points from three games, away 4 from four, and they have kept three clean sheets. They lost 1-0 at Venezia, where De Bruyne missed a penalty. Alisson Santos, Neres, Favasuli, Vergara and Buongiorno are out.
Roma: unbeaten, three goals conceded in seven games
Five wins and two draws, 16 goals scored and 3 conceded: the best defence in the league, with five clean sheets. They have taken 10 points from four home games and 7 from three away; last time out they beat Genoa 2-0. Malen returns after suspension; Svilar (Gollini is in goal), Dybala, Pellegrini and Manu Koné are out, and Cristante is a doubt.
What to expect
The model gives Roma 44%, Napoli 29% and the draw 27%, with 1.4 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%) and 1-0 (10%), ahead of 0-0 (9%): at 2.4 expected goals in total it is the second lowest-scoring game of the Serie A round, after Cagliari v Bologna. A Roma clean sheet is rated at 35%. Malen, back from suspension, has a 35% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; De Bruyne is at 22%.
Our prediction
Napoli vs Roma · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Roma win or draw
71% estimated probability
Roma are unbeaten and Napoli have lost three of seven. The model gives Roma 44% and the draw 27%.
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
57% estimated probability
Across Napoli and Roma’s games, both teams have scored in only five of fourteen, and the model expects 2.4 goals in total. The two defences have conceded 10 goals in 14 games.
Roma clean sheet
Roma do not concede
35% estimated probability
Roma have kept five clean sheets in seven games and conceded 3 goals; Gollini is in goal in place of Svilar. Napoli have scored 10 goals and have 1.1 expected goals: a Roma clean sheet is rated at 35%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Napoli clean sheet
- 26%
- Roma clean sheet
- 35%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.