Serie A · Matchday 9 · Wed 28 Oct · 18:30 (Italian time)
Parma vs Udinese: preview and prediction
Preview
Parma and Udinese, both on 4 points, meet on Wednesday at 18:30 (Italian time). Parma, nineteenth, have the worst attack in the league (5 goals in eight games) and come off a 2-1 defeat at Lazio; Udinese, seventeenth, have lost their last six games, the latest 2-0 at home to Milan. Elphege, Nicolussi Caviglia, Almqvist and Valentín are out for Parma, with Drobnić doubtful; Udinese are without Alaba, Gueye, Solet, Zanoli and Bayo.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeParma | AwayUdinese |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th4 points | 17th4 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–1–6 | 1–1–6 |
| Goals for–against | 5–150.6–1.9 per match | 9–181.1–2.2 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 1in 5 matches |
| Points away | 0in 4 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 8 | 0 of 8 |
The analysis
Parma: 5 goals in eight games
One win, a draw and six defeats, 5 goals scored and 15 conceded: nobody has scored less and Parma have never kept a clean sheet. Their only win and only draw came at home (4 points from four games); away they have zero points from four. They come off a 2-1 defeat at Lazio. Five of their eight games have had at least three goals. Elphege, Nicolussi Caviglia, Almqvist and Valentín are out; Drobnić is doubtful.
Udinese: six defeats in a row
One win, a draw and six defeats, 9 goals scored and 18 conceded: Udinese have lost their last six games and have never kept a clean sheet. At home they have taken 1 point from five games, away 3 from three. Five of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five. They come off a 2-0 home defeat to Milan. Alaba, Gueye, Solet, Zanoli and Bayo are out.
What to expect
The model gives Udinese 38% and Parma 36%, with the draw at 26% and 1.3 expected goals each. The most likely score is 1-1 (12%), then 0-1 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). It is the most open game of the round: the favourites, Udinese, are below 40%. Both teams to score is at 54%, Over 2.5 at 49%. Romero has a 31% chance of scoring, Ekkelenkamp 23%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Parma vs Udinese · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
12
No draw
74% estimated probability
Parma and Udinese have each drawn just one game in eight and lost six. The model gives the draw 26%.
Did not come true
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
49% estimated probability
Five of Parma’s eight games and five of Udinese’s have had at least three goals, and the two defences have conceded 15 and 18. The model expects 2.6 goals in total.
Did not come true
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
41% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in five of Udinese’s eight games and in four of Parma’s, and neither side has ever kept a clean sheet. The model rates both teams to score at 54% and Over 2.5 at 49%.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Parma clean sheet
- 26%
- Udinese clean sheet
- 27%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.