Serie A · Matchday 9 · Tue 27 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
Roma vs Cagliari: preview and prediction
Preview
Roma, third on 18 points and still unbeaten, host Cagliari, ninth on 13, on Tuesday at 20:45 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 3-3 draw at Napoli and have kept a clean sheet in five of eight games; Cagliari have lost their last two, the latest 2-0 at home to Bologna. Malen is available for Roma, but Svilar (Gollini is in goal), Dybala, Pellegrini and Manu Koné are out; Cagliari are without Felici, Idrissi, Winks and Trepy, and Deiola is one booking away from suspension.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeRoma | AwayCagliari |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd18 points | 9th13 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 5–3–0 | 4–1–3 |
| Goals for–against | 19–62.4–0.8 per match | 6–90.8–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 10in 4 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Points away | 8in 4 matches | 9in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 5 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
The analysis
Roma: five clean sheets in eight games
Five wins and three draws, 19 goals scored and 6 conceded. Roma are unbeaten, have taken 10 points from four home games and 8 from four away, and have kept five clean sheets, more than any other side. Last time out they drew 3-3 at Napoli. Both teams have scored in only three of their eight games. Malen is available; Svilar (Gollini is in goal), Dybala, Pellegrini and Manu Koné are out.
Cagliari: two defeats in a row and 6 goals in eight games
Four wins, a draw and three defeats, 6 goals scored and 9 conceded. They have taken 9 points from four away games and 4 from four at home, but have lost their last two. Only two of their games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in two; they have kept a clean sheet three times. Felici, Idrissi, Winks and Trepy are out; Deiola is one booking away from suspension.
What to expect
The model gives Roma 70% and Cagliari 10%, with the draw at 20% and 2.0 expected goals to 0.6. The most likely scores are 1-0 and 2-0 (15%), then 3-0 (10%) and 1-1 (9%). A Roma clean sheet is rated at 55%, the highest figure of the round; both teams to score is at 39%. Malen has a 42% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Soulé follows at 30%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Roma vs Cagliari · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1
Roma win
70% estimated probability
Roma are unbeaten and have taken 10 points from four home games; Cagliari have lost their last two. The model gives Roma 70% and the draw 20%.
Came true
Roma clean sheet
Roma do not concede
55% estimated probability
Roma have kept a clean sheet in five of eight games and Cagliari have scored 6 goals, 0.8 a game. Gollini is in goal in place of Svilar, but the model gives the Sardinians only 0.6 expected goals.
Did not come true
Roma win by 2+ goals
Roma win by at least two goals
44% estimated probability
To a Roma win we add a two-goal margin: the model gives Roma 2.0 expected goals to 0.6, and 2-0 (15%) and 3-0 (10%) are among the four most likely scores. About two wins in three come by two goals or more.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Roma clean sheet
- 55%
- Cagliari clean sheet
- 14%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.