Serie A · Matchday 9 · Tue 27 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
Torino vs Como: preview and prediction
Preview
Torino, eighth on 13 points and on a run of three straight wins, host Como, fifth on 17, on Tuesday at 20:45 (Italian time). The hosts beat Monza 3-2; Como won 2-0 at home to Sassuolo and have taken 10 points from five games away from home. Israel, Ilkhan, Mandragora, Fortini and Rodriguez are out for Torino; Como are without Chalobah, Diao and Rodríguez, while Kean is doubtful with a shin problem.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeTorino | AwayComo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th13 points | 5th17 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–1–3 | 5–2–1 |
| Goals for–against | 13–111.6–1.4 per match | 14–71.8–0.9 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 4 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Points away | 7in 4 matches | 10in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
The analysis
Torino: three wins in a row
Four wins, a draw and three defeats, 13 goals scored and 11 conceded. Torino have won their last three games, the latest 3-2 against Monza, and have taken 6 points from four home games and 7 from four away. Six of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six. Israel, Ilkhan, Mandragora, Fortini and Rodriguez are out.
Como: 14 goals scored and 7 conceded
Five wins, two draws and a defeat, 14 goals scored and 7 conceded. They have taken 10 points from five away games and 7 from three at home, and have won their last two; last time out they beat Sassuolo 2-0. Both teams have scored in five of their eight games. Douvikas, on 5 goals, is among the top five scorers in the league. Chalobah, Diao and Rodríguez are out; Kean is doubtful with a shin problem.
What to expect
The model gives Como 47% and Torino 27%, with the draw at 25% and 1.5 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (8%). Both teams to score is at 53%, Over 2.5 at 50%; a Torino clean sheet is rated at 21%. Douvikas has a 37% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Adams follows at 22%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Torino vs Como · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Como to score
At least one goal for Como
79% estimated probability
Torino have conceded 11 goals in eight games and have kept just one clean sheet. The model gives Como 1.5 expected goals: a Torino clean sheet is rated at 21%.
Came true
Total goals 2-4
From 2 to 4 goals in total
61% estimated probability
Six of Torino’s eight games and four of Como’s have had at least three goals; two to four are needed, and the model expects 2.7 in total.
Came true
Tasos Douvikas to score
Tasos Douvikas scores at least once
37% estimated probability
He has scored 5 goals, among the top five scorers in the league, and Torino have conceded 11 in eight games. He is the highest figure in the game.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Torino clean sheet
- 21%
- Como clean sheet
- 33%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.