Serie A · Matchday 8 · Fri 23 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
Torino vs Monza: preview and prediction
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Torino and Monza open matchday 8 on Friday evening at 20:45 (Italian time). Torino are tenth on 10 points and come off a 3-0 win at Parma; Monza, fourteenth on 7, thrashed Cagliari 4-0 with two goals from Varela, who has 6 and is among the league’s top three scorers.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeTorino | AwayMonza |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th10 points | 14th7 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–1–3 | 2–1–4 |
| Goals for–against | 10–91.4–1.3 per match | 13–151.9–2.1 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 6in 3 matches |
| Points away | 7in 4 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
The analysis
Torino: one win in three at home
Three wins, a draw and three defeats, 10 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from three games, with one win and two defeats; away 7 from four. They have won their last two, including the 3-0 at Parma. Five of their seven games have produced at least three goals and both teams have scored in five. Ilkhan, Fortini and Rodriguez are out.
Monza: six games out of seven with at least three goals
Two wins, a draw and four defeats, 13 goals scored and 15 conceded. Both teams have scored in six of their seven games and six have had at least three goals. At home they have taken 6 points from three games, away 1 from four. Pessina, Touré, Zeballos and Ziółkowski are out; Ciurria is doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Torino 50% and Monza 28%, with 1.9 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely score is 1-1 (10%), then 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Both teams have scored in six of Monza’s games and five of Torino’s: both teams to score is rated at 62%, the same as Over 2.5. Adams has a 38% chance of scoring, Varela 35%.
Our prediction
Torino vs Monza · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
83% estimated probability
Six of Monza’s games and five of Torino’s have produced at least three goals. Two are enough: the model expects 3.2.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
62% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in six of Monza’s games and five of Torino’s; neither side has kept more than one clean sheet.
Gustavo Varela to score
Gustavo Varela scores at least once
35% estimated probability
He has 6 league goals, two of them in the 4-0 against Cagliari, and Torino have conceded 9 in seven games. He is the highest figure among Monza players.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Torino clean sheet
- 26%
- Monza clean sheet
- 16%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.