Serie A · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
Udinese vs Milan: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Milan, fourth on 15 points and still unbeaten, close the Serie A round at Udinese on Sunday at 20:45 (Italian time). Udinese are sixteenth on 4 points and come off five straight defeats, the latest 3-0 at home to Lecce. Among the Rossoneri, Ramos has a soleus muscle problem and is competing for his place with Camarda.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeUdinese | AwayMilan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th4 points | 4th15 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–1–5 | 4–3–0 |
| Goals for–against | 9–161.3–2.3 per match | 14–72.0–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 4 matches | 9in 3 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
The analysis
Udinese: five defeats in a row
One win, a draw and five defeats, 9 goals scored and 16 conceded: Udinese have lost their last five games and have never kept a clean sheet. At home they have taken 1 point from four games, away 3 from three. Five of their seven games have had at least three goals. Alaba, Zaniolo and Gueye are out.
Milan: unbeaten, but with three draws
Four wins and three draws, 14 goals scored and 7 conceded. Milan are unbeaten, have taken 6 points from four away games and last time out beat Atalanta 3-2. Both teams have scored in five of their seven games. Gabbia and Saelemaekers are out; Chukwueze is being assessed and Ramos is in doubt with soleus muscle fatigue.
What to expect
The model gives Milan 58% and Udinese 20%, with 2.0 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-2 and 1-1 (10%), then 0-2 and 0-1 (9%). Both teams to score is rated at 58%, Over 2.5 at 61%; a clean sheet for Udinese, who have never kept one, is at 13%. For Milan the most likely scorer is Rabiot (33%), ahead of Moreira (32%).
Our prediction
Udinese vs Milan · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Milan win or draw
80% estimated probability
Udinese have lost their last five games and have taken 1 point from four at home. Milan are unbeaten: the model gives them 58% and the draw 21%.
Milan 2+ goals
Milan score at least twice
60% estimated probability
Milan score two goals a game and Udinese have conceded 16 in seven, without a clean sheet. The model gives Milan 2.0 expected goals.
2 & Over 2.5
Milan win and at least 3 goals in total
41% estimated probability
To a Milan win we add at least three goals: five of Udinese’s seven games and four of Milan’s have gone over 2.5, and the model expects 3.1 in total.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Udinese clean sheet
- 13%
- Milan clean sheet
- 33%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.