Serie A · Matchday 9 · Wed 28 Oct · 18:30 (Italian time)
Venezia vs Inter: preview and prediction
Preview
League leaders Inter, unbeaten and top on 22 points, travel to Venezia on Wednesday at 18:30 (Italian time). The hosts are bottom on 3 points, have lost seven of their eight games and come off a 1-0 defeat at Genoa; Inter beat Fiorentina 2-1 and have scored 23 goals, more than any other side. Adorante, Franjić, Sverko, Busio and Correia are out for Venezia; Inter are without Lautaro Martínez, Pavard, Stones, Jones and Luis Henrique, and Josep Martínez and Provedel are competing for the goalkeeping spot.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeVenezia | AwayInter |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th3 points | 1st22 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–0–7 | 7–1–0 |
| Goals for–against | 6–170.8–2.1 per match | 23–102.9–1.2 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 4 matches | 15in 5 matches |
| Points away | 0in 4 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
The analysis
Venezia: seven defeats in eight games
One win and seven defeats, 6 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from four games, away 0 from four. Last time out they lost 1-0 at Genoa. Only three of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in three; they have kept a clean sheet once. Adorante, Franjić, Sverko, Busio and Correia are out.
Inter: 23 goals in eight games
Seven wins and a draw, 23 goals scored and 10 conceded: the best attack in Serie A, 2.9 goals a game. They have taken 15 points from five home games and 7 from three away; last time out they beat Fiorentina 2-1. Seven of their eight games have had at least three goals. Lautaro Martínez (out until after the November break), Pavard, Stones, Jones and Luis Henrique are out; Josep Martínez and Provedel are competing for the goalkeeping spot.
What to expect
The model gives Inter 72% and Venezia 11%, with the draw at 16% and 2.5 expected goals to 0.9, the highest figure of the round for a team. The most likely scores are 0-2 (11%), 1-2, 0-3 and 0-1 (9%); at 3.4 expected goals in total it is the highest-scoring game of the round. Over 2.5 is at 65%, both teams to score at 54%; a Venezia clean sheet is rated at 8%. Thuram has a 42% chance of scoring, Çalhanoğlu 33%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Venezia vs Inter · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Venezia under 1.5 goals
Venezia score at most once
78% estimated probability
Venezia have scored 6 goals in eight games and face a defence, Inter’s, that has conceded 10. The model gives them 0.9 expected goals.
Came true
2 & Over 1.5
Inter win and at least 2 goals in total
64% estimated probability
Inter are unbeaten and have scored 2.9 goals a game; Venezia have conceded 17, 2.1 a game. The model gives Inter 72% and at least two goals in total 85%.
Came true
Marcus Thuram to score
Marcus Thuram scores at least once
42% estimated probability
He has scored 5 goals this season, including last time out against Fiorentina, and with Lautaro Martínez out until after the November break he is Inter’s main striker. Venezia have conceded 17 goals in eight games. He is the highest figure in the game.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Venezia clean sheet
- 8%
- Inter clean sheet
- 41%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.