Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · Sat 24 Oct · 15:30 (Italian time)
Cologne vs Schalke 04: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Cologne and Schalke meet on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). Cologne, twelfth on 7 points, come off a 1-0 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt; Schalke, fifteenth on 5, lost 1-0 at home to Mainz and, with 4 goals in six games, have the worst attack in the Bundesliga.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeCologne | AwaySchalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th7 points | 15th5 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–1–3 | 1–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 8–111.3–1.8 per match | 4–70.7–1.2 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 2in 3 matches |
| Points away | 0in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
The analysis
Cologne: 7 points at home, none away
Two wins, a draw and three defeats, 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have taken 7 points from three games, away none from three; they come off a 1-0 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt. They have never kept a clean sheet, both teams have scored in five of their six games and four have had at least three goals.
Schalke: 4 goals in six games
One win, two draws and three defeats, 4 goals scored and 7 conceded: 0.7 goals a game, the worst attack in the Bundesliga. At home they have taken 2 points from three games, away 3 from three; they lost 1-0 to Mainz. They have kept two clean sheets, both teams have scored in only two of their games and three have had at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Cologne 45% and Schalke 29%, with the draw at 26% and 1.5 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely score is 1-1 (12%), then 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%). That is 2.6 in total: Under 2.5 is at 52%, the same as both teams to score, and Over 2.5 at 48%.
Our prediction
Cologne vs Schalke 04 · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Cologne win or draw
71% estimated probability
Cologne have taken 7 points from three home games; Schalke have won just one of six and scored 4 goals. The model gives Cologne 45% and the draw 26%.
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
52% estimated probability
Schalke have scored 4 goals in six games and kept two clean sheets; the model expects 2.6 in total. Cologne, though, have had at least three goals in four of six games: Under 2.5 is at 52%, Over 2.5 at 48%.
1X & Under 2.5
Cologne avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
39% estimated probability
1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (11%), the two most likely scores, both fit the combination: Cologne do not lose and there are two goals at most.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.