Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · Sun 25 Oct · 17:30 (Italian time)
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Freiburg, third on 13 points, host Bayern Munich on Sunday at 17:30 (Italian time). The hosts have won all three of their home games and come off a 2-1 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen; Bayern, top on 14, beat RB Leipzig 6-1.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeFreiburg | AwayBayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd13 points | 1st14 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–1–1 | 4–2–0 |
| Goals for–against | 15–62.5–1.0 per match | 22–53.7–0.8 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 3 matches | 9in 3 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 5in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
The analysis
Freiburg: three wins from three at home
Four wins, a draw and a defeat, 15 goals scored and 6 conceded. At home they have won all three games (9 points), away they have taken 4 from three; they come off a 2-1 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen. Five of their six games have had at least three goals and they have kept two clean sheets.
Bayern Munich: 22 goals in six games
Four wins and two draws, 22 goals scored and 5 conceded (3.7 and 0.8 a game): the best attack in the Bundesliga. At home they have taken 9 points from three games, away 5 from three; they come off a 6-1 win over RB Leipzig. Five of their six games have had at least three goals and they have kept two clean sheets.
What to expect
The model gives Bayern 56% and Freiburg 23%, with the draw at 21% and 2.1 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely scores are 1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), then 0-2 and 0-1 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 66%, both teams to score at 64%.
Our prediction
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Bayern Munich win or draw
77% estimated probability
Bayern have not lost any of their six games and have scored 22 goals, 3.7 a game. Freiburg have won all three at home; the model gives them 23% and the draw 21%.
2
Bayern Munich win
56% estimated probability
Bayern are top on 14 points with 22 goals scored, and Freiburg have conceded 6 in six games. The Bavarians have taken only 5 points from three away games (a win and two draws), but the model rates them at 56%.
2 & Over 2.5
Bayern Munich win and at least 3 goals in total
42% estimated probability
Five of Bayern’s six games and five of Freiburg’s have had at least three goals; the model expects 3.4 in total. The most likely score, 1-2 (10%), fits the combination; 0-2 (7%) does not.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.