Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · Sun 25 Oct · 15:30 (Italian time)
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Hoffenheim, fourteenth on 6 points, host Bayer Leverkusen on Sunday at 15:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-1 win at Borussia Mönchengladbach and both teams have scored in all six of their games; Leverkusen, fourth on 13, beat Freiburg 2-1.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeHoffenheim | AwayBayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th6 points | 4th13 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–0–4 | 4–1–1 |
| Goals for–against | 11–141.8–2.3 per match | 16–92.7–1.5 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 9in 3 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
The analysis
Hoffenheim: both teams scored in all six games
Two wins and four defeats, 11 goals scored and 14 conceded. Both teams have scored in all six of their games and all six have had at least three goals. At home they have taken 3 points from three games, away 3 from three. They come off a 2-1 win at Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Bayer Leverkusen: 9 points from 9 at home
Four wins, a draw and a defeat, 16 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have won all three games (9 points), away they have taken 4 from three; they come off a 2-1 win over Freiburg. Five of their six games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four.
What to expect
The model gives Leverkusen 46% and Hoffenheim 33%, with the draw at 21% and 2.1 expected goals to 1.7: 3.8 in total. The most likely scores are 1-2 and 1-1 (8%), then 2-2 and 2-1 (7%). Both teams have scored in all of Hoffenheim’s games: Over 2.5 is at 74%, both teams to score at 72%.
Our prediction
Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
74% estimated probability
All six of Hoffenheim’s games and five of Leverkusen’s have had at least three goals. The model expects 3.8 in total.
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
64% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in all of Hoffenheim’s games and in four of six of Leverkusen’s. The model gives both teams to score 72% and the combination with Over 2.5 64%.
2 & Over 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen win and at least 3 goals in total
37% estimated probability
Leverkusen have won four of six and have taken 4 points from three away games. The most likely score is 1-2 (8%), which fits the combination; the model gives the away win 46%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.