Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · Sat 24 Oct · 15:30 (Italian time)
Mainz vs Werder Bremen: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Mainz, fifth on 10 points, host Werder Bremen on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). The hosts have won all three of their away games but taken 1 point from three at home; they come off a 1-0 win at Schalke. Werder, eighth on 9, drew 2-2 at home to Paderborn and both teams have scored in all six of their games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMainz | AwayWerder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th10 points | 8th9 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–1–2 | 2–3–1 |
| Goals for–against | 14–102.3–1.7 per match | 12–122.0–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 3 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Points away | 9in 3 matches | 2in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 6 | 0 of 6 |
The analysis
Mainz: three wins from three away, one point at home
Three wins, a draw and two defeats, 14 goals scored and 10 conceded. They have won all three away games (9 points), the latest 1-0 at Schalke, and taken 1 point from three at home. They have kept three clean sheets; four of their six games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in three.
Werder Bremen: both teams scored in all six games
Two wins, three draws and a defeat, 12 goals scored and 12 conceded. Both teams have scored in all six of their games and five have had at least three goals. At home they have taken 7 points from three games, away 2 from three. They come off a 2-2 draw at home to Paderborn.
What to expect
The model gives Mainz 56% and Werder 24%, with 2.3 expected goals to 1.5: 3.8 in total. The most likely scores are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), then 3-1 and 2-2 (7%). Both teams have scored in all six of Werder’s games: Over 2.5 is at 72%, both teams to score at 69%.
Our prediction
Mainz vs Werder Bremen · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
72% estimated probability
Five of Werder’s six games and four of Mainz’s have had at least three goals, and Werder have scored and conceded 12 in six games. The model expects 3.8 in total.
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
61% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in all six of Werder’s games. Mainz, though, have kept a clean sheet three times in six: the model gives both teams to score 69% and the combination with Over 2.5 61%.
1 & both teams score
Mainz win and both teams score
35% estimated probability
Mainz have won all three away games but have only 1 point from three at home; the model gives them 56%. 2-1 (9%) and 3-1 (7%), among the most likely scores, fit the combination.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.