Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · Sat 24 Oct · 15:30 (Italian time)
Paderborn vs Hamburg: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Paderborn, sixteenth on 5 points, host Hamburg on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-2 draw at Werder Bremen; Hamburg, ninth on 9, beat Stuttgart 1-0 and have conceded 15 goals in six games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomePaderborn | AwayHamburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th5 points | 9th9 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–2–3 | 3–0–3 |
| Goals for–against | 5–90.8–1.5 per match | 6–151.0–2.5 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 6in 3 matches |
| Points away | 2in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Paderborn: 5 goals scored in six games
One win, two draws and three defeats, 5 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from three games, away 2 from three; they come off a 2-2 draw at Werder Bremen. Three of their six games have had at least three goals, but both teams have scored in only two. They have kept one clean sheet.
Hamburg: 15 goals conceded in six games
Three wins and three defeats, 6 goals scored and 15 conceded (2.5 a game). At home they have taken 6 points from three games, away 3 from three; they come off a 1-0 win over Stuttgart. Four of their six games have had at least three goals, but both teams have scored in only two. They have kept one clean sheet.
What to expect
The model gives Paderborn 47% and Hamburg 29%, with the draw at 25% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.2: 2.8 in total. The most likely score is 1-1 (12%), then 1-0 and 2-1 (9%). Over 1.5 is at 78%, Over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 57%.
Our prediction
Paderborn vs Hamburg · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
78% estimated probability
The model expects 2.8 goals in total: two are enough. Hamburg have conceded 15 in six games, 2.5 a game.
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
54% estimated probability
Four of Hamburg’s six games and three of Paderborn’s have had at least three goals, but the two attacks have scored 6 and 5 goals in six games: the model gives Over 2.5 54%.
1X & Over 2.5
Paderborn avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
37% estimated probability
Paderborn have avoided defeat in three of six and have taken 3 points from three at home; the model gives them 47% and the draw 25%. Of the four most likely scores only 2-1 (9%) fits the combination.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.