Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · Sat 7 Nov · 19:00 (Italian time)
Auxerre vs Paris FC: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Auxerre, 14th on 10 points and with the most-conceded defence in the league, host Paris FC, 4th on 17, on Saturday at 19:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 5-1 defeat at Strasbourg; the visitors beat Monaco 3-1 and have taken 4 points from four away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAuxerre | AwayParis FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th10 points | 4th17 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–1–5 | 5–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 13–231.4–2.6 per match | 16–101.8–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 4 matches | 13in 5 matches |
| Points away | 3in 5 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 8 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
The analysis
Auxerre: the most-conceded defence in the league
Auxerre have three wins, one draw and five defeats, with 13 goals scored and 23 conceded, the most in the league. At home they have taken 7 points from four games, away 3 from five. Seven of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in eight; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they lost 5-1 at Strasbourg, and in their last five games they have won two, drawn one and lost two.
Paris FC: 13 points from five home games
Paris FC have five wins, two draws and two defeats, with 16 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have taken 13 points from five games, away 4 from four. Six of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they beat Monaco 3-1 at home, and in their last five games they have won three and lost two.
What to expect
The model gives Paris FC 56% and Auxerre 23%, with the draw at 21% and 2.0 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-2 and 1-1 (10%) and 0-2 and 0-1 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 64%, both teams to score at 62%; a clean sheet for Paris FC is rated at 29%.
Our prediction
Auxerre vs Paris FC · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Paris FC win or draw
77% estimated probability
X2, Paris FC win or draw, is rated at 77%: the model gives 56% to a win for the visitors and 21% to the draw.
2
Paris FC win
56% estimated probability
A Paris FC win is at 56%: the model expects 2.0 goals from the visitors against 1.2 for Auxerre, who have conceded 23 goals in nine games.
2 & Over 2.5
Paris FC win and at least 3 goals in total
40% estimated probability
2 & Over 2.5 (a Paris FC win and at least 3 goals in total) is at 40%: the model expects 3.3 goals and gives Over 2.5 64%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.