Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · Sun 8 Nov · 20:45 (Italian time)
Lens vs Marseille: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Lens, 9th on 13 points, host Marseille, 6th on 15, on Sunday at 20:45 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 1-0 defeat at Lille, the visitors a 2-0 home win over Toulouse. Marseille have taken 6 points from four away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLens | AwayMarseille |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th13 points | 6th15 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–1–4 | 5–0–4 |
| Goals for–against | 16–131.8–1.4 per match | 20–132.2–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 4 matches | 9in 5 matches |
| Points away | 4in 5 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
The analysis
Lens: both teams scored in seven of nine games
Lens have four wins, one draw and four defeats, with 16 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have taken 9 points from four games, away 4 from five. Seven of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have no clean sheets. Last time out they lost 1-0 at Lille, and in their last five games they have won three and lost two.
Marseille: 20 goals scored in nine games
Marseille have five wins and four defeats, with no draws, 20 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have taken 9 points from five games, away 6 from four. Five of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they beat Toulouse 2-0 at home, and in their last five games they have won four and lost one.
What to expect
The model gives Lens 43% and Marseille 34%, with the draw at 23% and 1.7 expected goals to 1.5. The most likely scores are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%) and 2-2 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 63%, both teams to score at 65%; a clean sheet for Lens is rated at 22%.
Our prediction
Lens vs Marseille · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Total goals 2-5
From 2 to 5 goals in total
72% estimated probability
Total goals 2-5, from 2 to 5 goals in total, is rated at 72%: the model expects 3.3 goals and Lens have finished seven of nine games with at least three goals.
Marseille under 1.5 goals
Marseille score at most once
55% estimated probability
Marseille under 1.5 goals, meaning Marseille score at most once, is at 55%: the model expects 1.5 goals from the visitors, who have scored 20 in nine games.
1X & Under 3.5
Lens avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
1X & Under 3.5 (Lens avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total) is at 38%: the boldest pick, with 43% for a Lens win and 23% for the draw.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.