Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · Sun 8 Nov · 17:15 (Italian time)
Brest vs Lyon: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Brest, 10th on 12 points, host Lyon, third on 17 and with the second-best defence in the league, on Sunday at 17:15 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-0 win at Lorient, the visitors a 2-0 home win over Angers. Brest have taken 8 points from five away games, Lyon 13 from five at home.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBrest | AwayLyon |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th12 points | 3rd17 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–3–3 | 5–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 16–121.8–1.3 per match | 15–71.7–0.8 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 13in 5 matches |
| Points away | 8in 5 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
The analysis
Brest: both teams scored in seven of nine games
Brest have three wins, three draws and three defeats, with 16 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have taken 4 points from four games, away 8 from five. Six of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they won 2-0 at Lorient, and in their last five games they have won two, drawn one and lost two.
Lyon: the second-best defence in the league
Lyon have five wins, two draws and two defeats, with 15 goals scored and 7 conceded, the second-best defence in the league. At home they have taken 13 points from five games, away 4 from four. Four of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have four clean sheets. Last time out they beat Angers 2-0 at home, and in their last five games they have won three and lost two.
What to expect
The model gives Lyon 39% and Brest 35%, with the draw at 26% and 1.4 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%) and 1-2 (8%). Under 2.5 is at 52%, both teams to score at 53%; a clean sheet for Lyon is rated at 28%.
Our prediction
Brest vs Lyon · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Lyon to score
At least one goal for Lyon
74% estimated probability
Lyon to score, at least one goal for Lyon, is rated at 74%: the model expects 1.4 goals from the visitors, who have scored 15 in nine games.
Total goals 2-4
From 2 to 4 goals in total
61% estimated probability
Total goals 2-4, from 2 to 4 goals in total, is at 61%: the model expects 2.6 goals and Brest have scored 16 goals in nine games.
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
41% estimated probability
Both teams score & Over 2.5 (both teams score and at least 3 goals in total) is at 41%: the boldest pick, with 53% for both teams scoring; both teams have scored in seven of Brest’s nine games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.