Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · Sun 8 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Rennes vs Lille: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Rennes, 5th on 16 points, host Lille, 2nd on 18 and with the best defence in the league, on Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 5-2 defeat at Nice, the visitors a 1-0 home win over Lens. Rennes have taken 13 points from five home games, Lille 7 from four away.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeRennes | AwayLille |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th16 points | 2nd18 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 5–1–3 | 5–3–1 |
| Goals for–against | 20–192.2–2.1 per match | 12–61.3–0.7 per match |
| Points at home | 13in 5 matches | 11in 5 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 8 of 9 | 2 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
The analysis
Rennes: eight of nine games with at least three goals
Rennes have five wins, one draw and three defeats, with 20 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have taken 13 points from five games, away 3 from four. Eight of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they lost 5-2 at Nice, and in their last five games they have won two and lost three.
Lille: the best defence in the league
Lille have five wins, three draws and one defeat, with 12 goals scored and 6 conceded, the best defence in the league. At home they have taken 11 points from five games, away 7 from four. Two of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have five clean sheets. Last time out they beat Lens 1-0 at home, and in their last five games they have won two, drawn two and lost one.
What to expect
The model gives Rennes 39% and Lille 36%, with the draw at 25% and 1.5 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 and 1-2 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 54%, both teams to score at 58%; a clean sheet for Rennes is rated at 25%.
Our prediction
Rennes vs Lille · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
12
No draw
75% estimated probability
12, no draw, is rated at 75%: the model gives 25% to the draw, with 1.5 goals expected for Rennes against 1.4.
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
54% estimated probability
Over 2.5, at least 3 goals in total, is at 54%: the model expects 2.9 goals and Rennes have finished eight of nine games with at least three goals.
Over 1.5 first half
At least 2 goals in the first half
37% estimated probability
Over 1.5 first half, at least 2 goals in the first half, is at 37%: the boldest pick, with 2.9 goals expected in total, though Lille have finished only two of nine games with at least three goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.