Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · Sun 8 Nov · 17:15 (Italian time)
Le Havre vs Lorient: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Le Havre, bottom on 2 points and winless, host Lorient, 11th on 12 and with the third-best defence in the league, on Sunday at 17:15 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 5-1 home defeat to PSG and have lost all of their last five games, the visitors a 2-0 home defeat to Brest.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLe Havre | AwayLorient |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th2 points | 11th12 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 0–2–7 | 3–3–3 |
| Goals for–against | 9–201.0–2.2 per match | 7–80.8–0.9 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 5 matches | 7in 5 matches |
| Points away | 1in 4 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
The analysis
Le Havre: no wins in nine games
Le Havre have two draws and seven defeats, with no wins, 9 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have taken 1 point from five games, away 1 from four. Five of their nine games have had more than two goals and both teams have scored in six; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they lost 5-1 at home to PSG, and they have lost all of their last five games.
Lorient: the third-best defence in the league
Lorient have three wins, three draws and three defeats, with 7 goals scored and 8 conceded, the third-best defence in the league. At home they have taken 7 points from five games, away 5 from four. Three of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in three; they have five clean sheets. Last time out they lost 2-0 at home to Brest, and in their last five games they have won two, drawn one and lost two.
What to expect
The model gives Lorient 40% and Le Havre 32%, with the draw at 28% and 1.2 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%) and 0-0 (10%). Under 2.5 is at 60%, both teams to score at 46%; a clean sheet for Lorient is rated at 35%.
Our prediction
Le Havre vs Lorient · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Total goals 1-3
From 1 to 3 goals in total
70% estimated probability
Total goals 1-3, from 1 to 3 goals in total, is rated at 70%: the model expects 2.3 goals and Lorient have scored 7 goals in nine games.
X2 & Under 3.5
Lorient avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
55% estimated probability
X2 & Under 3.5 (Lorient avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total) is at 55%: the model gives 40% to a win for the visitors and 28% to the draw.
2
Lorient win
40% estimated probability
A Lorient win is at 40%: the boldest pick, with 1.2 goals expected for the visitors and five clean sheets in nine games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.