Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · Sun 8 Nov · 17:15 (Italian time)
Le Mans vs Monaco: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Le Mans, 17th on 7 points, host Monaco, 7th on 15, on Sunday at 17:15 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-0 defeat at Troyes, the visitors a 3-1 defeat at Paris FC. Le Mans have never kept a clean sheet.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLe Mans | AwayMonaco |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th7 points | 7th15 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–4–4 | 4–3–2 |
| Goals for–against | 11–181.2–2.0 per match | 12–101.3–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 4 matches | 8in 4 matches |
| Points away | 2in 5 matches | 7in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 9 | 2 of 9 |
The analysis
Le Mans: both teams scored in seven of nine games
Le Mans have one win, four draws and four defeats, with 11 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have taken 5 points from four games, away 2 from five. Six of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have no clean sheets. Last time out they lost 2-0 at Troyes, and in their last five games they have won one, drawn one and lost three.
Monaco: 7 points from five away games
Monaco have four wins, three draws and two defeats, with 12 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have taken 8 points from four games, away 7 from five. Four of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they lost 3-1 at Paris FC, and in their last five games they have won one, drawn two and lost two.
What to expect
The model gives Monaco 49% and Le Mans 26%, with the draw at 25% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%) and 1-2 and 0-2 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 51%, both teams to score at 53%; a clean sheet for Monaco is rated at 34%.
Our prediction
Le Mans vs Monaco · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Monaco win or draw
74% estimated probability
X2, Monaco win or draw, is rated at 74%: the model gives 49% to a win for the visitors and 25% to the draw.
X2 & Over 1.5
Monaco avoid defeat and at least 2 goals in total
57% estimated probability
X2 & Over 1.5 (Monaco avoid defeat and at least 2 goals in total) is at 57%: the model expects 2.7 goals and Le Mans have conceded 18 in nine games.
2 & Over 1.5
Monaco win and at least 2 goals in total
38% estimated probability
2 & Over 1.5 (a Monaco win and at least 2 goals in total) is at 38%: the boldest pick, with 1.6 goals expected for the visitors against 1.1.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.