Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · Sat 7 Nov · 21:05 (Italian time)
PSG vs Troyes: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
PSG, 1st on 20 points and with the best attack in the league, host Troyes, 16th on 8, on Saturday at 21:05 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 5-1 win at Le Havre and have won their last five games; the visitors beat Le Mans 2-0 at home.
The numbers
| Stat | HomePSG | AwayTroyes |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st20 points | 16th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 6–2–1 | 2–2–5 |
| Goals for–against | 21–102.3–1.1 per match | 7–160.8–1.8 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 3 matches | 4in 5 matches |
| Points away | 14in 6 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
The analysis
PSG: the best attack in the league
PSG have six wins, two draws and a defeat, with 21 goals scored and 10 conceded, the best attack in the league. At home they have taken 6 points from three games, away 14 from six. Seven of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they won 5-1 at Le Havre, and they have won all of their last five games.
Troyes: 7 goals scored in nine games
Troyes have two wins, two draws and five defeats, with 7 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have taken 4 points from five games, away 4 from four. Three of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in three; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they beat Le Mans 2-0 at home, and in their last five games they have won one, drawn one and lost three.
What to expect
The model gives PSG 80% and Troyes 6%, with the draw at 14% and 2.5 expected goals to 0.6. The most likely scores are 2-0 (14%), 3-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 60%, both teams to score at 40%; a clean sheet for PSG is rated at 56%.
Our prediction
PSG vs Troyes · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 0.5 first half
At least one goal in the first half
75% estimated probability
Over 0.5 first half, at least 1 goal in the first half, is rated at 75%: the model expects 3.1 goals in total, 2.5 of them from PSG, who have scored 21 goals in nine games.
1X & Over 2.5
PSG avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
57% estimated probability
1X & Over 2.5 (PSG avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total) is at 57%: the model gives Over 2.5 60% and a PSG win 80%.
Over 3.5
At least 4 goals in total
38% estimated probability
Over 3.5, at least 4 goals, is at 38%: the boldest pick, with 3.1 goals expected in total and seven of PSG’s nine games finishing with at least three goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.