Ligue 1 · Matchday 10 · Fri 6 Nov · 20:45 (Italian time)
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Toulouse host Strasbourg on Friday at 20:45 (Italian time) in a meeting of two mid-table sides level on points. Toulouse are 12th on 10 points and come off a 2-0 defeat at Marseille; Strasbourg, 13th on 10 as well, beat Auxerre 5-1. Toulouse have scored 12 goals, Strasbourg 17: an open game is in prospect.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeToulouse | AwayStrasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th10 points | 13th10 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–4–3 | 3–1–5 |
| Goals for–against | 12–131.3–1.4 per match | 17–191.9–2.1 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Points away | 6in 5 matches | 3in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 9 | 8 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 9 | 7 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 9 | 0 of 9 |
The analysis
Toulouse: 6 points from five away games
Toulouse have two wins, four draws and three defeats, with 12 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away they have taken 6 points from five games, at home 4 from four. They have two clean sheets and five games with at least three goals; last time out they lost 2-0 at Marseille. In their last five games they have two wins, two draws and a defeat.
Strasbourg: eight games out of nine with at least three goals
Strasbourg have three wins, a draw and five defeats, with 17 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have taken 7 points from four games, away 3 from five. Eight of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have never kept a clean sheet. Last time out they beat Auxerre 5-1, but they have lost four of their last five.
What to expect
The model gives Toulouse 47% and Strasbourg 30%, with the draw at 23% and 1.8 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 and 1-2 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 63%, both teams to score at 63%; a clean sheet for Toulouse is rated at 25%.
Our prediction
Toulouse vs Strasbourg · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 0.5 first half
At least one goal in the first half
77% estimated probability
Over 0.5 first half, at least one goal in the first half, is rated at 77%: the model expects 3.2 goals in total and Strasbourg have finished eight games out of nine with at least three goals.
Toulouse 2+ goals
Toulouse score at least twice
54% estimated probability
The model gives 54% to Toulouse 2+ goals, with 1.8 goals expected; Strasbourg have conceded 19 in nine games.
1 & Over 1.5
Toulouse win and at least 2 goals in total
40% estimated probability
1 & Over 1.5 (a Toulouse win and at least 2 goals in total) is at 40%: the model gives the hosts 47% and Strasbourg 30%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.