Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sat 7 Nov · 16:00 (Italian time)
Arsenal vs Hull City: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Arsenal, league leaders on 24 points with a single defeat in nine games, host Hull City, 11th on 11, on Saturday at 16:00 (Italian time). The hosts have the best defence in the league, with 5 goals conceded, and come off a 1-0 win at Liverpool; the visitors drew 2-2 at home to Ipswich Town.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeArsenal | AwayHull City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st24 points | 11th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 8–0–1 | 2–5–2 |
| Goals for–against | 14–51.6–0.6 per match | 11–101.2–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 12in 4 matches | 7in 5 matches |
| Points away | 12in 5 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 6 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
The analysis
Arsenal: the best defence in the league
Arsenal have eight wins and one defeat, with 14 goals scored and 5 conceded. At home they have taken 12 points from four games, away 12 from five. They have six clean sheets in nine games and four games with more than two goals. Last time out they won 1-0 at Liverpool, and in their last five games they have won four.
Hull City: five draws in nine games
Hull City have two wins, five draws and two defeats, with 11 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have taken 7 points from five games, away 4 from four. Four of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they drew 2-2 at home to Ipswich Town, and in their last five games they have not won: three draws and two defeats.
What to expect
The model gives Arsenal 69% and Hull City 10%, with the draw at 21% and 1.8 expected goals to 0.5. The most likely scores are 1-0 (18%), 2-0 (16%) and 3-0 and 0-0 (10%). Under 2.5 is at 59%, both teams to score at 34%; a clean sheet for Arsenal is rated at 59%.
Our prediction
Arsenal vs Hull City · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1
Arsenal win
69% estimated probability
An Arsenal win is at 69%: the model expects 1.8 goals from the hosts against 0.5 for Hull City, who have taken 4 points from four away games.
Arsenal 2+ goals
Arsenal score at least twice
54% estimated probability
The model gives 54% to Arsenal 2+ goals, with 1.8 goals expected: they have taken 12 points from four home games.
Total goals 3-5
From 3 to 5 goals in total
38% estimated probability
Total goals 3-5, from 3 to 5 goals in total, is at 38%: the boldest pick, as the model expects 2.3 goals and gives 59% to Under 2.5.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.