Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sun 8 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Crystal Palace, 18th on 7 points and with the most-beaten defence in the league, host Liverpool, 5th on 15, on Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-0 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur, the visitors a 1-0 home defeat to Arsenal. Liverpool have taken 10 points from four away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeCrystal Palace | AwayLiverpool |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th7 points | 5th15 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–1–6 | 4–3–2 |
| Goals for–against | 9–211.0–2.3 per match | 11–91.2–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 4 matches | 5in 5 matches |
| Points away | 4in 5 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
The analysis
Crystal Palace: the most-beaten defence in the league
Crystal Palace have two wins, one draw and six defeats, with 9 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from four games, away 4 from five. Five of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they lost 2-0 at Tottenham Hotspur, and in their last five games they have won one, drawn one and lost three.
Liverpool: 10 points from four away games
Liverpool have four wins, three draws and two defeats, with 11 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have taken 5 points from five games, away 10 from four. Four of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in three; they have four clean sheets. Last time out they lost 1-0 at home to Arsenal, and in their last five games they have won three and lost two.
What to expect
The model gives Liverpool 56% and Crystal Palace 20%, with the draw at 23% and 1.8 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 0-1 and 1-1 (11%) and 0-2 and 1-2 (10%). Over 2.5 is at 52%, both teams to score at 52%; a clean sheet for Liverpool is rated at 38%.
Our prediction
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals
Crystal Palace score at most once
75% estimated probability
Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals, meaning Crystal Palace score at most once, is rated at 75%: the model expects 1.0 goals from the hosts, who have scored 9 in nine games.
2
Liverpool win
56% estimated probability
A Liverpool win is at 56%: the model expects 1.8 goals from the visitors, who have taken 10 points from four away games.
2 & Under 3.5
Liverpool win and at most 3 goals in total
37% estimated probability
2 & Under 3.5 (a Liverpool win and at most 3 goals in total) is at 37%: the model expects 2.8 goals and Crystal Palace have conceded 21 in nine games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.