Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sat 7 Nov · 13:30 (Italian time)
Leeds vs Tottenham: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Leeds United, 12th on 11 points, host Tottenham Hotspur, 9th on 12, on Saturday at 13:30 (Italian time) in a game that looks short of goals on paper. The hosts have the third-best defence in the league, with 8 goals conceded in nine games, but come off a 2-0 defeat at AFC Bournemouth; the visitors beat Crystal Palace 2-0 and have kept four clean sheets.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLeeds | AwayTottenham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th11 points | 9th12 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–5–2 | 3–3–3 |
| Goals for–against | 9–81.0–0.9 per match | 10–101.1–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 4 matches | 7in 5 matches |
| Points away | 5in 5 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
The analysis
Leeds United: the third-best defence in the league
Leeds United have two wins, five draws and two defeats, with 9 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home they have taken 6 points from four games, away 5 from five. Only two games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 2-0 at AFC Bournemouth, and in their last five games they have not won: three draws and two defeats.
Tottenham Hotspur: three wins in their last five games
Tottenham Hotspur have three wins, three draws and three defeats, with 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have taken 7 points from five games, away 5 from four. Three of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in three; they have four clean sheets. Last time out they beat Crystal Palace 2-0, and in their last five games they have won three.
What to expect
The model gives Leeds United 39% and Tottenham Hotspur 31%, with the draw at 29% and 1.2 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 1-0 (13%) and 0-1 and 0-0 (11%): at 2.2 expected goals in total it is the lowest-scoring game of the round. Under 2.5 is at 63%, both teams to score at 44%; a clean sheet for Leeds United is rated at 37%.
Our prediction
Leeds vs Tottenham · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Tottenham under 1.5 goals
Tottenham score at most once
73% estimated probability
Tottenham Hotspur under 1.5 goals, meaning they score at most once, is rated at 73%: the model expects 1.0 goals from them, and they have scored 10 in nine games.
Both teams to score: no
At least one team fails to score
56% estimated probability
Both teams to score: no, meaning at least one team fails to score, is at 56%: the model gives 44% to both teams scoring and expects 2.2 goals in total, the lowest of the round.
Under 1.5
At most 1 goals in total
36% estimated probability
Under 1.5, at most 1 goal in total, is at 36%: 0-0 is rated at 11%, a 1-0 win for Leeds United at 13% and a 1-0 win for Tottenham Hotspur at 11%, with 2.2 goals expected.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.