Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sun 8 Nov · 17:30 (Italian time)
Manchester United vs Aston Villa: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Manchester United, 17th on 7 points, host Aston Villa, 10th on 12, on Sunday at 17:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-0 defeat at Chelsea, the visitors a 1-1 home draw with Fulham. Manchester United have never kept a clean sheet.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeManchester United | AwayAston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th7 points | 10th12 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–4–4 | 3–3–3 |
| Goals for–against | 10–151.1–1.7 per match | 10–131.1–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 5in 5 matches |
| Points away | 3in 5 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 9 | 2 of 9 |
The analysis
Manchester United: no clean sheets in nine games
Manchester United have one win, four draws and four defeats, with 10 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have taken 4 points from four games, away 3 from five. Three of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have no clean sheets. Last time out they lost 2-0 at Chelsea, and in their last five games they have drawn three and lost two.
Aston Villa: 7 points from four away games
Aston Villa have three wins, three draws and three defeats, with 10 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have taken 5 points from five games, away 7 from four. Five of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they drew 1-1 at home with Fulham, and in their last five games they have won three and drawn two.
What to expect
The model gives Manchester United 42% and Aston Villa 32%, with the draw at 26% and 1.5 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 50%, both teams to score at 54%; a clean sheet for Manchester United is rated at 29%.
Our prediction
Manchester United vs Aston Villa · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
75% estimated probability
Over 1.5, at least 2 goals in total, is rated at 75%: the model expects 2.7 goals, 1.5 of them from Manchester United and 1.2 from Aston Villa.
X2
Aston Villa win or draw
58% estimated probability
X2, Aston Villa win or draw, is at 58%: the model gives 32% to a win for the visitors and 26% to the draw.
X2 & Over 1.5
Aston Villa avoid defeat and at least 2 goals in total
42% estimated probability
X2 & Over 1.5 (Aston Villa avoid defeat and at least 2 goals in total) is at 42%: the boldest pick, with 7 points taken by the visitors from four away games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.