Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sun 8 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Brighton vs Brentford: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Brighton & Hove Albion, third on 19 points, with the best attack in the league and the second-best defence, host Brentford, 6th on 14, on Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 1-0 win at Manchester City, the visitors a 2-0 home win over Nottingham Forest.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBrighton | AwayBrentford |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd19 points | 6th14 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 6–1–2 | 3–5–1 |
| Goals for–against | 24–72.7–0.8 per match | 16–91.8–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 10in 4 matches | 10in 5 matches |
| Points away | 9in 5 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 6 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
The analysis
Brighton & Hove Albion: the best attack in the league
Brighton & Hove Albion have six wins, one draw and two defeats, with 24 goals scored and 7 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from four games, away 9 from five. Five of their nine games have had more than two goals, both teams have scored in two and they have six clean sheets. Last time out they won 1-0 at Manchester City, and in their last five games they have won four and lost one.
Brentford: both teams scored in six of nine games
Brentford have three wins, five draws and one defeat, with 16 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from five games, away 4 from four. Five of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 at home, and in their last five games they have won two, drawn two and lost one.
What to expect
The model gives Brighton & Hove Albion 56% and Brentford 22%, with the draw at 22% and 1.9 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 2-1 (10%) and 1-0 and 2-0 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 59%, both teams to score at 58%; a clean sheet for Brighton & Hove Albion is rated at 32%.
Our prediction
Brighton vs Brentford · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Brighton win or draw
78% estimated probability
1X, Brighton & Hove Albion win or draw, is rated at 78%: the model gives 56% to a win for the hosts and 22% to the draw.
1
Brighton win
56% estimated probability
A Brighton & Hove Albion win is at 56%: the model expects 1.9 goals from the hosts, who have scored 24 in nine games.
1 & Over 2.5
Brighton win and at least 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
1 & Over 2.5 (a Brighton & Hove Albion win and at least 3 goals in total) is at 38%: the boldest pick, with 3.0 goals expected in total and 59% for Over 2.5.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.